This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Spurious regression under deterministic and stochastic trends

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Antonio E. Noriega () (School of Economics, Universidad de Guanajuato)
Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia () (School of Economics, Universidad de Guanajuato)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper analyses the asymptotic and finite sample implications of a mixed nonstationary behavior among the dependent and explanatory variables in a linear spurious regression model. We study the cases when the nonstationarity in the dependent variable is deterministic (stochastic), while the nonstationarity in the explanatory variable is stochastic (deterministic). In particular, we derive the asymptotic distribution of statistics in a spurious regression equation when one variable follows a difference stationary process (a random walk with and without drift), while the other is characterized by deterministic nonstationarity (a linear trend model with and without structural breaks in the trend function). We find that the divergence rate is sensitive to the assumed mixture of nonstationarity in the data generating process, and the phenomenon of spurious regression itself, contrary to previous findings, depends on the presence of a linear trend in the regression equation. Simulation experiments and real data confirm our asymptotic results.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://economia.ugto.org/WorkingPapers/EM200503.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universidad de Guanajuato in its series School of Economics Working Papers with number EM200503.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:gua:wpaper:em200503

Contact details of provider:
Postal: UCEA-Campus Marfil, Fracc. I, El Establo, Guanajuato GTO 36250
Phone: [+52 473] 735 2925 x-2925
Fax: [+52 473] 735 2925 x-2925
Email:
Web page: http://economia.ugto.org/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia).

Related research
Keywords: Unit roots; Trend stationarity; Structural breaks; Spurious regression;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung & Yongil Jeon, 1998. "Spurious Regressions with Stationary Series," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 98-25, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Entorf, Horst, 1997. "Random walks with drifts: Nonsense regression and spurious fixed-effect estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 287-296, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Kim, Tae-Hwan & Lee, Young-Sook & Newbold, Paul, 2004. "Spurious regressions with stationary processes around linear trends," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 257-262, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Kormendi, Roger C & Meguire, Philip, 1990. "A Multicountry Characterization of the Nonstationarity of Aggregate Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(1), pages 77-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Tsay, Wen-Jen & Chung, Ching-Fan, 2000. "The spurious regression of fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 155-182, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Noriega, Antonio E. & de Alba, Enrique, 2001. "Stationarity and structural breaks -- evidence from classical and Bayesian approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 503-524, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Marmol, Francesc, 1998. "Spurious regression theory with nonstationary fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 233-250, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia & Antonio E. Noriega, 2005. "Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 186, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer with RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-28.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.