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Spurious Regression and Trending Variables

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Author Info
Antonio E. Noriega () (School of Economics, Universidad de Guanajuato)
Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia () (School of Economics, Universidad de Guanajuato)

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Abstract

This paper analyses the asymptotic and finite sample implications of different types of nonstationary behavior among the dependent and explanatory variables in a linear spurious regression model. We study cases when the nonstationarity in the dependent and explanatory variables is deterministic as well as stochastic. In particular, we derive the order in probability of the t-statistic in a linear regression equation under a variety of empirically relevant data generation processes, and show that he spurious regression phenomenon is present in all cases considered, when at least one of the variables behaves in a nonstationary way. Simulation experiments confirm our asymptotic results.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Universidad de Guanajuato in its series School of Economics Working Papers with number EM200701.

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Handle: RePEc:gua:wpaper:em200701

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Postal: UCEA-Campus Marfil, Fracc. I, El Establo, Guanajuato GTO 36250
Phone: [+52 473] 735 2925 x-2925
Fax: [+52 473] 735 2925 x-2925
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Related research
Keywords: Trend Stationarity; Structural Breaks; Spurious Regression; Unit Roots; Trends.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Peter C. B. Phillips, 1998. "New Tools for Understanding Spurious Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(6), pages 1299-1326, November.
  2. Katarina Juselius, 1996. "A Structured VAR under Changing Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 96-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Marmol, Francesc, 1996. "Nonsense Regressions between Integrated Processes of Different Orders," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 525-36, August.
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  5. Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung & Yongil Jeon, 1998. "Spurious Regressions with Stationary Series," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 98-25, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Haldrup, Neils, 1998. " An Econometric Analysis of I(2) Variables," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(5), pages 595-650, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hassler, Uwe, 1996. "Spurious regressions when stationary regressors are included," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 25-31, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Entorf, Horst, 1997. "Random walks with drifts: Nonsense regression and spurious fixed-effect estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 287-296, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kim, Tae-Hwan & Lee, Young-Sook & Newbold, Paul, 2004. "Spurious regressions with stationary processes around linear trends," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 257-262, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, . "Spurious regression under broken trend stationarity," School of Economics Working Papers EM200501, Universidad de Guanajuato. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-20, July.
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  14. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. D'Adda, Carlo & Scorcu, Antonello E., 2003. "On the time stability of the output-capital ratio," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1175-1189, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Tsay, Wen-Jen & Chung, Ching-Fan, 2000. "The spurious regression of fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 155-182, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Noriega, Antonio E. & de Alba, Enrique, 2001. "Stationarity and structural breaks -- evidence from classical and Bayesian approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 503-524, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Wu, Jyh-Lin, 2000. "Mean reversion of the current account: evidence from the panel data unit-root test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 215-222, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Marmol, Francesc, 1998. "Spurious regression theory with nonstationary fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 233-250, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Perron, Pierre & Zhu, Xiaokang, 2005. "Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 65-119. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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