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Bilateral Relationship between Consumption and GDP in Mexico and the USA: A Comment

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  • Gomez Zaldivar, M.

    ()

  • Ventosa-Santaularia, D.

    ()

Abstract

This article presents a critical appraisal of three different econometric techniques commonly employed to analyze causal relationships among economic series. Our results indicate that the empirical application of the Granger causality test, the Engle-Granger cointegration test and the Hausman test for causality performed with small samples suffers severe size distortions, and therefore that the results should be taken with caution. Furthermore, we show that these tests produce better results if the series are differentiated. Our results are applied to the series for consumption and GDP in Mexico and the US and suggest that these series are cointegrated in the case of the US only (causality and cointegration are different). We comment upon these results in relation to the conclusions of Guisan (2004), and other related studies, in which several methods are used to analyze the bilateral causality between consumption and GDP in Mexico and the US and where it was found that cointegration and Granger causality tests may fail to detect the true causal relationships.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:9:y:2009:i:1_6

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Related research

Keywords: Granger causality test; cointegration; Mexico; the US; consumption and Gross Domestic Product;

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  1. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Busetti, Fabio & Harvey, Andrew, 2008. "Testing For Trend," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 72-87, February.
  3. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  4. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
  5. Manuel Gomez & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2008. "Testing for a Deterministic Trend when there is Evidence of Unit-Root," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200801, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance, revised Jun 2010.
  6. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2007. "Spurious Regression and Trending Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(3), pages 439-444, 06.
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