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Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression

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  • Wayne E. Ferson
  • Sergei Sarkissian
  • Timothy Simin

Abstract

This paper studies the estimation of asset pricing model regressions with conditional alphas and betas, focusing on the joint effects of data snooping and spurious regression. We find that the regressions are reasonably well specified for conditional betas, even in settings where simple predictive regressions are severely biased. However, there are biases in estimates of the conditional alphas. When time-varying alphas are suppressed and only time-varying betas are considered, the betas become baised. Previous studies overstate the significance of time-varying alphas.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12658.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12658

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Cited by:
  1. Patton, Andrew J & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2010. "On the Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 7780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Meng, Ginger & Hu, Gang & Bai, Jushan, 2007. "Olive: a simple method for estimating betas when factors are measured with error," MPRA Paper 33183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Swaminathan G. Badrinath & Stefano Gubellini, 2012. "Does conditional mutual fund outperformance exist?," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(12), pages 1160-1183.
  4. Grauer, Robert R. & Janmaat, Johannus A., 2009. "On the power of cross-sectional and multivariate tests of the CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 775-787, May.
  5. Patton, Andrew J & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2011. "On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 8479, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Badrinath, S.G. & Gubellini, S., 2011. "On the characteristics and performance of long-short, market-neutral and bear mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1762-1776, July.
  7. David E Allen & Imbarine Bujang, 2009. "Conditional Beta Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Duration Dependence Tests," Working papers 2009-07, Edith Cowan University, School of Accounting Finance & Economics.
  8. Yong Chen & Wayne Ferson & Helen Peters, 2009. "Measuring the Timing Ability and Performance of Bond Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 15318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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