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Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression

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  • Wayne E. Ferson
  • Sergei Sarkissian
  • Timothy Simin

Abstract

This paper studies the estimation of asset pricing model regressions with conditional alphas and betas, focusing on the joint effects of data snooping and spurious regression. We find that the regressions are reasonably well specified for conditional betas, even in settings where simple predictive regressions are severely biased. However, there are biases in estimates of the conditional alphas. When time-varying alphas are suppressed and only time-varying betas are considered, the betas become baised. Previous studies overstate the significance of time-varying alphas.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12658.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12658

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Cited by:
  1. Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai, 2013. "On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 597-635, 04.
  2. J. Ginger Meng & Gang Hu & Jushan Bai, 2011. "Olive: A Simple Method For Estimating Betas When Factors Are Measured With Error," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 27-60, 03.
  3. Swaminathan G. Badrinath & Stefano Gubellini, 2012. "Does conditional mutual fund outperformance exist?," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(12), pages 1160-1183.
  4. Roberto Violi, 2011. "Optimal active portolio management and relative performance drivers: theory and evidence," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 187-209 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Kang, Hankil & Kang, Jangkoo & Lee, Changjun, 2013. "Do the production-based factors capture the time-varying patterns in stock returns?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 122-135.
  6. Yong Chen & Wayne Ferson & Helen Peters, 2009. "Measuring the Timing Ability and Performance of Bond Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 15318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Grauer, Robert R. & Janmaat, Johannus A., 2009. "On the power of cross-sectional and multivariate tests of the CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 775-787, May.
  8. Patton, Andrew J & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2010. "On the Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 7780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Leite, Paulo & Cortez, Maria Céu, 2014. "Style and performance of international socially responsible funds in Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 248-267.
  10. Badrinath, S.G. & Gubellini, S., 2011. "On the characteristics and performance of long-short, market-neutral and bear mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1762-1776, July.
  11. repec:ecu:wpaper:2009-07 is not listed on IDEAS

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