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Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression

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  • Ferson, Wayne E.
  • Sarkissian, Sergei
  • Simin, Timothy

Abstract

This paper studies the estimation of asset pricing model regressions with conditional alphas and betas, focusing on the joint effects of data snooping and spurious regression. We find that the regressions are reasonably well specified for conditional betas, even in settings where simple predictive regressions are severely biased. However, there are biases in estimates of the conditional alphas. When time-varying alphas are suppressed and only time-varying betas are considered, the betas become baised. Previous studies overstate the significance of time-varying alphas.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis.

Volume (Year): 43 (2008)
Issue (Month): 02 (June)
Pages: 331-353

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Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:43:y:2008:i:02:p:331-353_00

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Cited by:
  1. Kang, Hankil & Kang, Jangkoo & Lee, Changjun, 2013. "Do the production-based factors capture the time-varying patterns in stock returns?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 122-135.
  2. Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai, 2013. "On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 597-635, 04.
  3. Badrinath, S.G. & Gubellini, S., 2011. "On the characteristics and performance of long-short, market-neutral and bear mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1762-1776, July.
  4. repec:ecu:wpaper:2009-07 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Grauer, Robert R. & Janmaat, Johannus A., 2009. "On the power of cross-sectional and multivariate tests of the CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 775-787, May.
  6. Roberto Violi, 2011. "Optimal active portolio management and relative performance drivers: theory and evidence," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 187-209 Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Leite, Paulo & Cortez, Maria Céu, 2014. "Style and performance of international socially responsible funds in Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 248-267.
  8. Meng, Ginger & Hu, Gang & Bai, Jushan, 2007. "Olive: a simple method for estimating betas when factors are measured with error," MPRA Paper 33183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Patton, Andrew J & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2010. "On the Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 7780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Yong Chen & Wayne Ferson & Helen Peters, 2009. "Measuring the Timing Ability and Performance of Bond Mutual Funds," NBER Working Papers 15318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Swaminathan G. Badrinath & Stefano Gubellini, 2012. "Does conditional mutual fund outperformance exist?," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(12), pages 1160-1183.

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