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Measuring the timing ability and performance of bond mutual funds

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  • Chen, Yong
  • Ferson, Wayne
  • Peters, Helen
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    Abstract

    This paper evaluates the ability of bond funds to "market time" nine common factors related to bond markets. Timing ability generates nonlinearity in fund returns as a function of common factors, but there are several non-timing-related sources of nonlinearity. Controlling for the non-timing-related nonlinearity is important. Funds' returns are more concave than benchmark returns, and this would appear as poor timing ability in naive models. With controls, the timing coefficients appear neutral to weakly positive. Adjusting for nonlinearity, the performance of many bond funds is significantly negative on an after-cost basis, but significantly positive on a before-cost basis.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 98 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 1 (October)
    Pages: 72-89

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:98:y:2010:i:1:p:72-89

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

    Related research

    Keywords: Mutual funds Market timing Bond funds Investment Performance Evaluation;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Fang, Jieyan & Kempf, Alexander & Trapp, Monika, 2014. "Fund Manager Allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 661-674.
    2. Herrmann, Ulf & Scholz, Hendrik, 2013. "Short-term persistence in hybrid mutual fund performance: The role of style-shifting abilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2314-2328.
    3. Joe-Ming Lee, 2013. "The Search of Structural Changes in Mutual Fund Industry-Based On the ARMAX-GJR-GARCH Model," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 308-316, March.
    4. Cao, Charles & Chen, Yong & Liang, Bing & Lo, Andrew W., 2013. "Can hedge funds time market liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 493-516.
    5. Boguth, Oliver & Carlson, Murray & Fisher, Adlai & Simutin, Mikhail, 2011. "Conditional risk and performance evaluation: Volatility timing, overconditioning, and new estimates of momentum alphas," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 363-389.
    6. Roberto Violi, 2011. "Optimal active portolio management and relative performance drivers: theory and evidence," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 187-209 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Cici, Gjergji & Gibson, Scott, 2010. "The performance of corporate-bond mutual funds: Evidence based on security-level holdings," CFR Working Papers 10-18, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    8. Hammami, Yacine & Jilani, Faouzi & Oueslati, Abdelmonem, 2013. "Mutual fund performance in Tunisia: A multivariate GARCH approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 35-51.
    9. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2011. "Fixed-income fund performance: Role of luck and ability in tail membership," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 379-392, June.
    10. Chris GROSE & Theodoros KARGIDIS, 2012. "Persistence In Performance For Mutual Funds In Periods Of Crisis," Scientific Bulletin - Economic Sciences, University of Pitesti, vol. 11(1), pages 85-98.
    11. Fang, Jieyan & Kempf, Alexander & Trapp, Monika, 2012. "Fund manager allocation," CFR Working Papers 10-04 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

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