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Predictive Consequences of Using Conditioning or Causal Variables

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Author Info
Granger, C.W.J.
Thomson, P. J.

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Abstract

Forecasts based on two information sets, one of which includes the other plus additional causal variables are considered. Given a general cost function of forecast errors, it is shown that the expected cost is smaller for the information set that includes the causal variables.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 3 (1987)
Issue (Month): 01 (February)
Pages: 150-152
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:3:y:1987:i:01:p:150-152_00

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  1. McCrorie, J.R. & Chambers, M.J., 2004. "Granger causality and the sampling of economic processes," Discussion Paper 39, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Oliver Linton & Pedro Gozalo, 1996. "Conditional Independence Restrictions: Testing and Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1140, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fatih Ozatay, 1993. "Forecasting Contemporaneously Aggregated Variables Using Granger-Causal Variables," Discussion Papers 9302, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
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