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Bayesian analysis of coefficient instability in dynamic regressions

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  • Emanuela Ciapanna

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

  • Marco Taboga

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

This paper proposes a Bayesian regression model with time-varying coefficients (TVC) that makes it possible to estimate jointly the degree of instability and the time-path of regression coefficients. Thanks to its computational tractability, the model proves suitable to perform the first (to our knowledge) Monte Carlo study of the finite-sample properties of a TVC model. Under several specifications of the data generating process, the proposed model’s estimation precision and forecasting accuracy compare favourably with those of other methods commonly used to deal with parameter instability. Furthermore, the TVC model leads to small losses of efficiency under the null of stability and it is robust to mis-specification, providing a satisfactory performance also when regression coefficients experience discrete structural breaks. As a demonstrative application, we use our TVC model to estimate the exposures of S&P 500 stocks to market-wide risk factors: we find that a vast majority of stocks have time-varying risk exposures and that the TVC model helps to forecast these exposures more accurately.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 836.

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Date of creation: Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_836_11

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Keywords: time-varying regression; coefficient instability;

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