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Disentangling the firm growth process: evidence from a recursive panel VAR

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Author Info
Alexander Coad ()

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Abstract

We attempt to describe the coevolution of employment growth, sales growth and growth of profits in a panel of French manufacturing firms 1996-2004. Our analysis entails ‘recursive’ panel vector autoregressions, whereby we impose the structure of employment growth leading to contemporaneous sales growth, which in turn is associated with contemporaneous growth of profits. We observe that whilst employment growth has a direct negative association with profit growth, there are indirect effects through which employment growth leads to sales growth which in turn has a large effect on profits growth. The net effect of employment growth is thus positive growth of profits. Counter to some ‘replicator dynamics’ theories of industrial development, profit growth is not followed by much subsequent growth of employment.

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Paper provided by Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group in its series Papers on Economics and Evolution with number 2007-15.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:esi:evopap:2007-15

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Keywords: Firm Growth; Panel VAR; Recursive VAR; Employment Growth; Industrial Dynamics Length 15 pages;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General
L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Alex Coad, 2007. "A Closer Look at Serial Growth Rate Correlation," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 69-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Giulio Bottazzi & Alex Coad & Nadia Jacoby & Angelo Secchi, 2005. "Corporate Growth and Industrial Dynamics: Evidence from French Manufacturing," LEM Papers Series 2005/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alex Coad, 2007. "Firm growth : a survey," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne r07024, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Michael P. Murray, 2006. "Avoiding Invalid Instruments and Coping with Weak Instruments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 111-132, Fall.
  5. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Binder, Michael & Hsiao, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2005. "Estimation And Inference In Short Panel Vector Autoregressions With Unit Roots And Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(04), pages 795-837, August. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Alex Coad, 2007. "Exploring the "mechanics" of firm growth : evidence from a short-panel VAR," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne r07037, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne. [Downloadable!]
  9. Geroski, Paul A, 1999. "The Growth of Firms in Theory and in Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 2092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Alexander Coad & Rekha Rao, 2007. "Firm Growth and R&D Expenditure," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2007-10, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group. [Downloadable!]
  12. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Stanca, Luca & Gallegati, Mauro, 1999. "The Dynamic Relation between Financial Positions and Investment: Evidence from Company Account Data," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 551-72, September.
  14. Metcalfe, J S, 1994. "Competition, Fisher's Principle and Increasing Returns in the Selection Process," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 327-46, November.
  15. Pavitt, Keith, 1984. "Sectoral patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 343-373, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Steve Bond, 2002. "Dynamic panel data models: a guide to microdata methods and practice," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/02, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  17. Alex Coad, 2005. "Testing the principle of 'growth of the fitter': The relationship between profits and firm growth," Emory Economics 0531, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta). [Downloadable!]
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  18. Delmar, Frederic & Davidsson, Per & Gartner, William B., 2003. "Arriving at the high-growth firm," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 189-216, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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