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A Closer Look at Serial Growth Rate Correlation

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Author Info
Alex Coad

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Abstract

Serial correlation in annual growth rates carries a lot of information on growth pro-cesses – it allows us to directly observe firm performance as well as to test theories. Using a 7-year balanced panel of 10 000 French manufacturing firms, we observe that small firms typically are subject to negative correlation of annual growth rates, whereas larger firms display positive correlation. Furthermore, we find that those small firms that experience extreme positive or negative growth in any one year are unlikely to repeat this performance in the following year

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Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2006/29.

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Date of creation: 03 Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2006/29

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Related research
Keywords: Serial correlation; firm growth; quantile regression; French manufacturing; fast-growth firms;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Giulio Bottazzi & Alex Coad & Nadia Jacoby & Angelo Secchi, 2005. "Corporate Growth and Industrial Dynamics: Evidence from French Manufacturing," LEM Papers Series 2005/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mahmut Yasar & Carl H. Nelson & Roderick Rejesus, 2006. "Productivity and Exporting Status of Manufacturing Firms: Evidence from Quantile Regressions," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(4), pages 675-694, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Francesca Lotti & Enrico Santarelli & Marco Vivarelli, 2003. "Does Gibrat's Law hold among young, small firms?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alex Coad, 2006. "Towards an explanation of the exponential distribution of firm growth rates," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques r06025, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
  5. Alex Coad, 2006. "Understanding the processes of firm Growth - a closer look at serial growth rate correlation," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques r06051, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
  6. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Alex Coad & Rekha Rao, 2006. "Innovation and Firm Growth in High-Tech Sectors: A Quantile Regression Approach," LEM Papers Series 2006/18, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Ericson, Richard & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: A Framework for Empirical Work," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-70, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2003. "Common Properties and Sectoral Specificities in the Dynamics of U.S. Manufacturing Companies," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 217-232, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Friedman, Milton, 1992. "Do Old Fallacies Ever Die?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(4), pages 2129-32, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Paul Geroski & Mariana Mazzucato, 2002. "Learning and the sources of corporate growth," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 623-644, August.
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  13. Giulio Bottazzi & Giovanni Dosi & Marco Lippi & Fabio Pammolli & Massimo Riccaboni, 2001. "Innovation and Corporate Growth in the Evolution of the Drug Industry," LEM Papers Series 2001/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Alex Coad, 2006. "A Closer Look at Serial Growth Rate Correlation," LEM Papers Series 2006/29, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2005. "Explaining the Distribution of Firms Growth Rates," LEM Papers Series 2005/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Giulio Bottazzi & Elena Cefis & Giovanni Dosi, 2002. "Corporate growth and industrial structures: some evidence from the Italian manufacturing industry," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 705-723, August.
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  17. Binder, Michael & Hsiao, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2005. "Estimation And Inference In Short Panel Vector Autoregressions With Unit Roots And Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(04), pages 795-837, August. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Geroski, Paul A, 1999. "The Growth of Firms in Theory and in Practice," CEPR Discussion Papers 2092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Alex Coad, 2006. "Towards an Explanation of the Exponential Distribution of Firm Growth Rates," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00113346_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
  20. Chesher, Andrew, 1979. "Testing the Law of Proportionate Effect," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 403-11, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Goddard, John & Wilson, John & Blandon, Peter, 2002. "Panel tests of Gibrat's Law for Japanese manufacturing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 415-433, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Kumar, M S, 1985. "Growth, Acquisition Activity and Firm Size: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 327-38, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Boeri, Tito & Cramer, Ulrich, 1992. "Employment growth, incumbents and entrants : Evidence from Germany," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 545-565, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Geroski, Paul A & Machin, Stephen & Walters, Christopher F, 1997. "Corporate Growth and Profitability," Journal of Industrial Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2), pages 171-89, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Weiss, Christoph R, 1998. " Size, Growth, and Survival in the Upper Austrian Farm Sector," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 305-12, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Roger Koenker & Kevin F. Hallock, 2001. "Quantile Regression," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 143-156, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Giulio Bottazzi & Elena Cefis & Giovanni Dosi & Angelo Secchi, 2003. "Invariances and Diversities in the Evolution of Manufacturing Industries," LEM Papers Series 2003/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  28. Singh, Ajit & Whittington, Geoffrey, 1975. "The Size and Growth of Firms," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 15-26, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Alex Coad & Rekha Rao & Federico Tamagni, 2008. "Growth Processes of Italian Manufacturing Firms," LEM Papers Series 2008/20, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Alexander Coad & Jagannadha Pawan Tamvada, 2008. "The Growth and Decline of Small firms In Developing Countries," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2008-08, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Matthias Deschryvere, 2008. "High Growth Firms and Job Creation in Finland," Discussion Papers 1144, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alex Coad & Rekha Rao, 2006. "Innovation and market value: a quantile regression analysis," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 15(13), pages 1-10. [Downloadable!]
  5. Alexander Coad & Rekha Rao, 2007. "Firm Growth and R&D Expenditure," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2007-10, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alexander Coad, 2007. "Disentangling the firm growth process: evidence from a recursive panel VAR," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2007-15, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marco Corsino & Roberto Gabriele & Enrico Zaninotto, 2008. "Organizational capabilities and industry dynamics: a computational model," DISA Working Papers 0809, Department of Computer and Management Sciences, University of Trento, Italy, revised 18 Nov 2008. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Alex Coad & Werner Hölzl, 2009. "On the Autocorrelation of Growth Rates," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 139-166, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Alex Coad, 2007. "A Closer Look at Serial Growth Rate Correlation," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 69-82, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Alex Coad, 2008. "Firm growth and scaling of growth rate variance in multiplant firms," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 12(9), pages 1-15. [Downloadable!]
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