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The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time

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Author Info
Stéphane Dées () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Arthur Saint-Guilhem () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

This paper aims at assessing the role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time. The emergence of large economic players, like China, is likely to have weakened the role of the U.S. economy as a driver of global growth. Based on a Global VAR modelling approach, this paper shows first that the transmission of U.S. cyclical developments to the rest of the world tends to fluctuate over time but remains large overall. Second, although the size of the spillovers might have decreased in the most recent periods, the effects of changes in U.S. economic activity seem to have become more persistent. Actually, the increasing economic integration at the world level is likely to have fostered second-round and third-market effects, making U.S. cyclical developments more global. Finally, the slightly decreasing role of the U.S. has been accompanied by an increasing importance of third players. Regional integration might have played a significant role by giving more weights to non-U.S. trade partners in the sensitivity of the various economies to their international environment. JEL Classification: E32, E37, F41.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1034.

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Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091034

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Related research
Keywords: International transmission of shocks; Business cycle; Global VAR (GVAR).;

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2009. "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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