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The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time

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  • Dées, Stéphane
  • Saint-Guilhem, Arthur

Abstract

This paper aims at assessing the role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time. The emergence of large economic players, like China, is likely to have weakened the role of the U.S. economy as a driver of global growth. Based on a Global VAR modelling approach, this paper shows first that the transmission of U.S. cyclical developments to the rest of the world tends to fluctuate over time but remains large overall. Second, although the size of the spill-overs might have decreased in the most recent periods, the effects of changes in U.S. economic activity seem to have become more persistent. Actually, the increasing economic integration at the world level is likely to have fostered second-round and third-market effects, making U.S. cyclical developments more global. Finally, the slightly decreasing role of the U.S. has been accompanied by an increasing importance of third players. Regional integration might have played a significant role by giving more weights to non-U.S. trade partners in the sensitivity of the various economies to their international environment. JEL Classification: E32, E37, F41

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1034.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091034

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Keywords: business cycle; Global VAR; international transmission of shocks;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2009. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR," Working Papers 04/2009, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
  2. Marco Duenas & Giorgio Fagiolo, 2011. "Modeling the International-Trade Network: A Gravity Approach," LEM Papers Series 2011/25, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  3. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time-Varying FAVAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 8341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Stephane Dees & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2011. "The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 573-591, December.
  5. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2009. "Analyse der Übertragung US-amerikanischer Schocks auf Deutschland auf Basis eines FAVAR," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,35, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2009. "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Madura, Jeff & Ngo, Thanh & Viale, Ariel M., 2011. "Convergent synergies in the global market for corporate control," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2468-2478, September.
  8. Angela Abbate & Luca De Benedictis & Giorgio Fagiolo & Lucia Tajoli, 2012. "The International Trade Network in Space and Time," LEM Papers Series 2012/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  9. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.

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