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Interest Rate Spreads, Credit Constraints, and Investment Fluctuations: An Empirical Investigation

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Author Info
Mark Gertler
R. Glenn Hubbard
Anil Kashyap

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Abstract

We present a simple framework that incorporates a role for "interest rate spreads" in models of investment fluctuations. Formally, we develop a simple model of investment and financial contracting under asymmetric information that can he used to generate an Euler equation describing firms' intertemporal decisions about investment. The Euler equation is than estimated using data on U.S. producers' durable equipment investment. We find that during certain periods -- owing to agency-cost problems -- the basic Euler equation is violated, and shifts in interest rate differentials help predict investment. Thus, the empirical results lend support to models emphasizing how: (i) movements in agency costs of external finance can amplify investment fluctuation, and (ii) changes in the interest rate spread may signal movements in these agency costs.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3495.

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Date of creation: Nov 1990
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3495

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  1. Sangeeta Pratap & Silvio Rendon, 2003. "Firm Investment in Imperfect Capital Markets: A Structural Estimation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(3), pages 513-545, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Jaramillo, Fidel & Schiantarelli, Fabio & Weiss, Andrew, 1993. "Capital market imperfections before and after financial liberalization : a Euler Equation approach to panel data for Ecuadorian firms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1091, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States," IMF Working Papers 02/8, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Olli-Pekka Oksanen, 2006. "Are Foreign Investments Replacing Domestic Investments? - Evidence from Finnish Manufacturing," Discussion Papers 1001, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  5. Eugenio Gaiotti & Andrea Generale, 2001. "Does monetary policy have asymmetric effects? A look at the investment decisions of Italian firms," Working Paper Series 110, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  6. J T Kneeshaw, 1995. "A survey of non-financial sector balance sheets in industialised countries: implications for the monetary policy transmission mechanism," BIS Working Papers 25, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  7. Fabio ALESSANDRINI, 2003. "Some Additional Evidence from the Credit Channel on the Response to Monetary Shocks: Looking for Asymmetries," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 03.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
  8. Philip Lowe & Thomas Rohling, 1993. "Agency Costs, Balance Sheets and the Business Cycle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9311, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  9. David Aadland, 2002. "Detrending Time-Aggregated Data," Macroeconomics 0301007, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Leonardo Becchetti & Jaime Sierra, 2000. "Bankruptcy Risk And Productive Efficiency Bankruptcy Risk And Productive Efficiency In Manufacturing Firms," Departmental Working Papers 132, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  11. Christopher L. House, 2002. "Adverse Selection and the Accelerator," Macroeconomics 0211015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  12. Leonardo Becchetti & Jaime Humberto Sierra Gonzalez 2, 2003. "Bankruptcy Risk and Productive Efficiency in Manufacturing Firms," CEIS Research Paper 30, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
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  13. René Garcia & Huntley Schaller, 1999. "Are the Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric?," Carleton Economic Papers 99-17, Carleton University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  15. Fabio Schiantarelli & Andrew Weiss & Fidel Jaramillo, 1993. "Capital Market Imperfections Before And After Financial Liberization: An Euler Equation Approach To Panel Data For Ecuadorian Firms," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 221, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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