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Small Noise Asymptotics for a Stochastic Growth Model

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  • Noah Williams

Abstract

We develop analytic asymptotic methods to characterize time series properties of nonlinear dynamic stochastic models. We focus on a stochastic growth model which is representative of the models underlying much of modern macroeconomics. Taking limits as the stochastic shocks become small, we derive a functional central limit theorem, a large deviation principle, and a moderate deviation principle. These allow us to calculate analytically the asymptotic distribution of the capital stock, and to obtain bounds on the probability that the log of the capital stock will differ from its deterministic steady state level by a given amount. This latter result can be applied to characterize the probability and frequency of large business cycles. We then illustrate our theoretical results through some simulations. We find that our results do a good job of characterizing the model economy, both in terms of its average behavior and its occasional large cyclical fluctuations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10194.

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Date of creation: Dec 2003
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Publication status: published as Williams, Noah. "Small Noise Asymptotics For A Stochastic Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, 2004, v119(2,Dec), 2710298.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10194

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Cited by:
  1. S. B. Aruoba & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2005. "Comparing Solution Methods for Dynamic Equilibrium Economies," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000855, UCLA Department of Economics.
  2. Martin Ellison & Liam Graham & Jouka Vilmunen, 2005. "Strong Contagion with Weak Spillovers," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  3. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova & Sergey Slobodyan, 2006. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous—Time Approximation," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp285, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  4. Takanobu Kosugi, 2010. "Assessments of ‘Greenhouse Insurance’: A Methodological Review," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 345-363, December.
  5. Robert Feicht & Wolfgang Stummer, 2010. "Complete Closed-form Solution to a Stochastic Growth Model and Corresponding Speed of Economic Recovery preliminary," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  6. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 557, Econometric Society.
  7. Huyen Pham, 2007. "Some applications and methods of large deviations in finance and insurance," Papers math/0702473, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2007.
  8. Anderson, Evan W. & Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2012. "Small noise methods for risk-sensitive/robust economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 468-500.
  9. Olson, Lars J. & Roy, Santanu, 2005. "Theory of Stochastic Optimal Economic Growth," Working Papers 28601, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  10. Bruce McGough, 2003. "Shocking Escapes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 294, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 190, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Stutzer, Michael, 2013. "Optimal hedging via large deviation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(15), pages 3177-3182.
  13. Laura Veldkamp, 2003. "Learning Asymmetries in Real Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  14. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 27, Econometric Society.
  15. Sebastian Sienknecht, 2010. "On the Informational Loss Inherent in Approximation Procedures: Welfare Implications and Impulse Responses," Jena Economic Research Papers 2010-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.

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