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The Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours and Output: A Robustness Analysis

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Author Info
Canova, Fabio
López-Salido, J David
Michelacci, Claudio

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Abstract

We analyze the effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks on hours and output. Long cycles in hours are captured in a variety of ways. Hours robustly fall in response to neutral shocks and robustly increase in response to investment specific shocks. The percentage of the variance of hours (output) explained by neutral shocks is small (large); the opposite is true for investment specific shocks. `News shocks' that generically change expectations about future productivity, are uncorrelated with the estimated technology shocks.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6720.

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Date of creation: Feb 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6720

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Related research
Keywords: Long cycles; News shocks; Structural VARs; Technology disturbances;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - General
O33 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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  1. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Miles S. Kimball, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Francis, Neville & Ramey, Valerie A., 2005. "Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1379-1399, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Can Long-Run Restrictions Identify Technology Shocks?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1237-1278, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?," NBER Working Papers 13111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Dedola, Luca & Neri, Stefano, 2007. "What does a technology shock do? A VAR analysis with model-based sign restrictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 512-549, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Claudio Michelacci & David Lopez-Salido, 2007. "Technology Shocks and Job Flows," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 74(4), pages 1195-1227, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Giordani, Paolo, 2004. "An alternative explanation of the price puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1271-1296, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What happens after a technology shock?," International Finance Discussion Papers 768, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 10548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2005. "Measures of Per Capita Hours and their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate," NBER Working Papers 11694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Harald Uhlig, 2004. "Do Technology Shocks Lead to a Fall in Total Hours Worked?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 361-371, 04/05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Evans, Charles L., 1992. "Productivity shocks and real business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 191-208, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Jordi Gali, 1999. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 249-271, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa, 2007. "The Structural Dynamics of Output Growth and Inflation: Some International Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(519), pages C167-C191, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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