Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Does Forecasts Transparency Affect Macroeconomic Volatility in Developing Countries ? Evidence From Quasi-Natural Experiments

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ummad Mazhar

    (Shaheed Zul kar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology - Shaheed Zul kar Ali Bhutto Institute of Science and Technology)

  • Cheick Kader M'Baye

    (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure (ENS) - Lyon - PRES Université de Lyon - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I)

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically investigate the link between forecasts transparency and macroeconomic volatility as measured by inflation and output growth volatility in developing economies. We adopt the quasi-random controlled experiments methodology that divides our sample of 49 developing countries into three categories on the basis of their forecasts transparency. The first category is composed of central banks that are completely opaque over our sample period. The second type of countries is constantly transparent about their forecasts over the period of study while the third category includes central banks that have recently started to disclose their forecasts. In contrast to the previous literature, we interestingly find that increasing forecasts transparency unambiguously leads to higher macroeconomic volatility in developing countries. Indeed, we find that both groups of countries that constantly disclose their forecasts and that have only recently started to disclose their forecasts experience an increase in their macroeconomic volatility compared to the remaining group of countries that are completely opaque. Our results however indicate that forecasts transparency may have some stabilizing effects if and only if it is practiced along with other forms of institutional transparency.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/95/64/54/PDF/1410.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00956454.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00956454

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00956454
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/

Related research

Keywords: Forecasts transparency; monetary policy transparency; central banking; inflation volatility; output volatility;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Oil and the Great Moderation," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0735, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Lars E O Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Bank of England working papers 56, Bank of England.
  3. Geraats, P.M., 2005. "The Mystique of Central Bank Speak," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0543, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  4. Michael Woodford, 2007. "The Case for Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
  5. Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002. "Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 99-118.
  6. Demertzis, Maria & Andrew Hughes Hallett, 2003. "Central Bank Transparency in Theory and Practice," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 56, Royal Economic Society.
  7. Cruijsen, C.A.B. van der & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Hoogduin, L.H., 2008. "Optimal Central Bank Transparency," Discussion Paper 2008-59, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  8. Jonathan G. James & Phillip Lawler, 2011. "Optimal Policy Intervention and the Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1561-74, June.
  9. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  10. Christopher W. Crowe & Ellen E. Meade, 2008. "Central Bank Independence and Transparency," IMF Working Papers 08/119, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2006. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," NBER Working Papers 11946, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Christopher Crowe & Ellen E. Meade, 2007. "Central Bank Independence and Transparency: Evolution and Effectiveness," Working Papers 2007-20, American University, Department of Economics.
  14. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
  15. Pierre Siklos, 2011. "Central bank transparency: another look," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 929-933.
  16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
  17. Ummad Mazhar, 2013. "Transparency and output stability: Empirical evidence," Working Papers CEB 13-010, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  18. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
  19. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  20. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
  21. Christopher Bowdler & Adeel Malik, 2005. "Openness and inflation volatility: cross-country evidence," CSAE Working Paper Series 2005-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  22. Baeriswyl, Romain & Cornand, Camille, 2010. "The signaling role of policy actions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 682-695, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00956454. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.