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Macroeconomic reversal rate in a low interest rate environment

Author

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  • van den End, Jan Willem
  • Konietschke, Paul
  • Samarina, Anna
  • Stanga, Irina M.

Abstract

This paper investigates how the monetary policy transmission channels change once the economy is in a low interest rate environment. We estimate a nonlinear model for the euro area and its five largest countries over the period 1999q2-2019q1 and allow for the effects of monetary policy shocks to be state dependent. Using smooth transition local projections, we examine the impulse responses of investment, savings, consumption, and the output gap to an expansionary monetary policy shock under normal and low interest rate regimes. We find evidence for a macroeconomic reversal rate related to the substitution effects becoming weaker relative to the income effects in a low interest rate regime. In this regime the effects of monetary policy shocks are either less powerful or reverse sign compared with a normal rate regime. JEL Classification: E21, E22, E43, E52

Suggested Citation

  • van den End, Jan Willem & Konietschke, Paul & Samarina, Anna & Stanga, Irina M., 2021. "Macroeconomic reversal rate in a low interest rate environment," Working Paper Series 2620, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212620
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    low interest rate environment; monetary policy; reversal rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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