The Resilience of the Indian Economy to Rising Oil Prices as a Validation Test for a Global Energy-Environment-Economy CGE Model
AbstractThis paper proposes to test the global hybrid computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R against macroeconomic data. To do so, it compares the modeled and observed responses of the Indian economy to the rise of oil price during the 2003- 2006 period. The objective is twofold: first, to disentangle the various mechanisms and policies at play in India's economy response to rising oil prices and, second, to validate our model as a tool capable of reproducing short-run statistical data. With default parameterization, the model predicts a significant decrease in the Indian growth rate that is not observed. However, this discrepancy is corrected if three additional mechanisms identified by the International Monetary Fund are introduced, namely the rise in exports of refined oil products, the imbalance of the trade balance allowed by large capital inflows, and the incomplete pass-through of the oil price increase to Indian customers. This work is a first step toward model validation, and provides interesting insights on the modeling methodology relevant to represent an economy's response to a shock, as well as on how short-term mechanisms – and policy action – can smooth the negative impacts of energy price shocks or climate policies. Running headline
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00566971.
Date of creation: 04 Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, Energy Policy, 2009, 37, 11, 4259–4266
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00566971/en/
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
Other versions of this item:
- Guivarch, Céline & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Crassous, Renaud, 2009. "The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy-environment-economy CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4259-4266, November.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
- Chris Bataille, Mark Jaccard, John Nyboer and Nic Rivers, 2006. "Towards General Equilibrium in a Technology-Rich Model with Empirically Estimated Behavioral Parameters," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 93-112.
- Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Marzio Galeotti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "WITCH. A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," Working Papers 2006_46, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005.
"The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth,"
OECD Economics Department Working Papers
420, OECD Publishing.
- Oliveira Martins, Joaquim & Gonand, Frédéric & Antolín, Pablo & de la Maisonneuve, Christine & Yoo, Kwang-Yeol, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11049, Paris Dauphine University.
- Bernanke, Ben S, 1983.
"Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1980. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," NBER Working Papers 0502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004.
"Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
- Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1996.
"Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity,"
NBER Working Papers
5634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rotemberg, Julio J & Woodford, Michael, 1996. "Imperfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 550-77, November.
- Solow, Robert M., 1987.
"Growth Theory and After,"
Nobel Prize in Economics documents
1987-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
- Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008.
"Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
- Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
- Olson, Mancur, 1988. "The Productivity Slowdown, the Oil Shocks, and the Real Cycle," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 43-69, Fall.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
- Renaud Crassous & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Olivier Sassi, 2006. "Endogenous structural change and climate targets," Post-Print halshs-00009335, HAL.
- Renaud Crassous, Jean-Charles Hourcade, Olivier Sassi, 2006. "Endogenous Structural Change and Climate Targets Modeling Experiments with Imaclim-R," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 259-276.
- Hallegatte, Stéphane & Ghil, Michael & Dumas, Patrice & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2008.
"Business cycles, bifurcations and chaos in a neo-classical model with investment dynamics,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 57-77, July.
- Stéphane Hallegatte & Michael Ghil & Patrice Dumas & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2008. "Business Cycles, Bifurcations and Chaos in a Neo-Classical Model with Investment Dynamics," Post-Print halshs-00007196, HAL.
- Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.
- Kai Lessmann & Ottmar Edenhofer & Nico Bauer, 2005.
"Mitigation Strategies and Costs of Climate Protection: The effects of ETC in the hybrid Model MIND,"
2005.150, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Ottmar Edenhofer, Kai Lessmann, Nico Bauer, 2006. "Mitigation Strategies and Costs of Climate Protection: The Effects of ETC in the Hybrid Model MIND," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 207-222.
- Finn, Mary G, 2000. "Perfect Competition and the Effects of Energy Price Increases on Economic Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 400-416, August.
- Andreas Schafer and Henry D. Jacoby, 2006. "Experiments with a Hybrid CGE-MARKAL Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 171-177.
- Robert M. Solow, 2000. "Toward a Macroeconomics of the Medium Run," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 151-158, Winter.
- Jean-Charles Hourcade & Olivier Sassi & Renaud Crassous & Vincent Gitz & Henri Waisman & Céline Guivarch, 2010.
"IMACLIM-R: a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways,"
- Olivier Sassi & Renaud Crassous & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Vincent Gitz & Henri Waisman & Celine Guivarch, 2010. "IMACLIM-R: a modelling framework to simulate sustainable development pathways," International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 10(1/2), pages 5-24.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
- Jean Charles Hourcade & Mark Jaccard & Chris Bataille & Frédéric Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges," Post-Print halshs-00471234, HAL.
- Scrieciu, S. Serban, 2007. "The inherent dangers of using computable general equilibrium models as a single integrated modelling framework for sustainability impact assessment. A critical note on Bohringer and Loschel (2006)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 678-684, February.
- Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1.
- McKitrick, Ross R., 1998. "The econometric critique of computable general equilibrium modeling: the role of functional forms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 543-573, October.
- Libo Wu & Jing Li & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2011.
"Inflationary effect of oil-price shocks in an imperfect market: a partial transmission input-output analysis,"
Economics Study Area Working Papers
115, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
- Wu, Libo & Li, Jing & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2013. "Inflationary effect of oil-price shocks in an imperfect market: A partial transmission input–output analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 354-369.
- Libo Wu & Jing Li & ZhongXiang Zhang, 2011. "Inflationary Effect of Oil-Price Shocks in an Imperfect Market: A Partial Transmission Input-output Analysis," Working Papers 2011.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Mathy, Sandrine & Guivarch, Céline, 2010.
"Climate policies in a second-best world--A case study on India,"
Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1519-1528, March.
- Sandrine Mathy & Céline Guivarch, 2010. "Climate policies in a second-best world- a case study on India," Post-Print halshs-00724498, HAL.
- Liu, Zhen & Lieu, Jenny & Zhang, Xiliang, 2014. "The target decomposition model for renewable energy based on technological progress and environmental value," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 70-79.
- Ruben Bibas & Aurélie Méjean, 2012. "Bioenergy and CO2 Sequestration: Climate Policies Beyond Technological Constraints," Working Papers 2012.88, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Céline Guivarch & Renaud Crassous & Olivier Sassi & Stephane Hallegatte, 2011. "The costs of climate policies in a second best world with labour market imperfections," Post-Print halshs-00724487, HAL.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.