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Endogenous structural change and climate targets

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  • Renaud Crassous

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts, ENGREF - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts - Ministère de l'agriculture)

  • Jean-Charles Hourcade

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts)

  • Olivier Sassi

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et Forêts)

Abstract

This paper envisages endogenous technical change as resulting from the interplay between the economic growth engine, consumption, technology and localization patterns. We perform numerical simulations with the recursive dynamic general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R to study how modeling induced technical change affects costs of CO2 stabilization. IMACLIM-R incorporates innovative specifications about final consumption of transportation and energy to represent critical stylized facts such as rebound effects and demand induction by infrastructures and equipments. Doing so brings to light how induced technical change may not only lower stabilization costs thanks to pure technological progress, but also triggers induction of final demand - effects critical to both the level of the carbon tax and the costs of policy given a specific stabilization target. Finally, we study the sensitivity of total stabilization costs to various parameters including both technical assumptions as accelerated turnover of equipments and non-energy choices as alternative infrastructure policies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00009335.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Publication status: Published, The Energy Journal, 2006, .
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00009335

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00009335/en/
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Related research

Keywords: induced technical change; structural change; climate policy; carbon tax; transportation; infrastructures;

References

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  1. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00000965 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Smulders, J.A. & Nooij, M. de, 2003. "The impact of energy conservation on technology and economic growth," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-123121, Tilburg University.
  3. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1989. "The Wage Curve," NBER Working Papers 3181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Grubb, Michael, 1997. "Technologies, energy systems and the timing of CO2 emissions abatement : An overview of economic issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 159-172, February.
  5. Franck Lecocq & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Minh Ha-Duong, 1998. "Decision making under uncertainty and inertia constraints: sectoral implications of the when flexibility," Post-Print halshs-00002458, HAL.
  6. Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 1993. "Modelling long-run scenarios : Methodology lessons from a prospective study on a low CO2 intensive country," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 309-326, March.
  7. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "An Introduction to the Wage Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 153-167, Summer.
  8. Jean-Charles Hourcade & Philippe Ambrosi & Stéphane Hallegatte & Franck Lecocq & Patrice Dumas & Minh Ha-Duong, 2003. "Optimal control models and elicitation of attitudes towards climate damages," Post-Print halshs-00000966, HAL.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00866443 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00866431 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Jean-Francois Mercure, 2012. "On the changeover timescales of technology transitions and induced efficiency changes: an overarching theory," Papers 1209.0424, arXiv.org.
  4. Schafer, Andreas, 2012. "Introducing behavioral change in transportation into energy/economy/environment models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6234, The World Bank.
  5. Hübler, Michael & Baumstark, Lavinia & Leimbach, Marian & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Bauer, Nico, 2012. "An integrated assessment model with endogenous growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-054, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  6. Sandrine Mathy & Céline Guivarch, 2009. "What if energy decoupling of emerging economies were not so spontaneous ? An illustrative example on India," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866443, HAL.
  7. Monjon, Stéphanie & Quirion, Philippe, 2011. "Addressing leakage in the EU ETS: Border adjustment or output-based allocation?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 1957-1971, September.
  8. Sandrine Mathy & Céline Guivarch, 2009. "Climate policies : what if emerging country baseline were not so optimistic? - a case study related to India," CIRED Working Papers halshs-00366276, HAL.
  9. Guivarch, Céline & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Crassous, Renaud, 2009. "The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy-environment-economy CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4259-4266, November.
  10. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00866444 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. F. Souty & T. Brunelle & P. Dumas & B. Dorin, & P. Ciais & R. Crassous, 2012. "The Nexus Land-Use Model, an Approach Articulating Biophysical Potentials and Economic Dynamics to Model Competition for Land-Uses," Working Papers 2012.16, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  12. Gusdorf, Francois & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2007. "Compact or spread-out cities: Urban planning, taxation, and the vulnerability to transportation shocks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4826-4838, October.
  13. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00366276 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Gunnar Luderer & Valentina Bosetti & Michael Jakob & Henri Waisman & Jan Steckel & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2009. "Towards a Better Understanding of Disparities in Scenarios of Decarbonization: Sectorally Explicit Results from the RECIPE Project," Working Papers 2009.117, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.

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