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The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model

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  • Zhao, Xin
  • Calvin, Katherine V.
  • Wise, Marshall A.
  • Iyer, Gokul

Abstract

The representations of international trade and global market integration play central roles in long-term global agricultural economic modeling. However, the conventional use of the gravity models (i.e., the Armington approach) of trade may not adequately account for the dynamic process of market integration. In this paper, we generalize a logit-based Armington approach by permitting home preference bias erosion to account for a trend of global market integration. We build a simple agricultural economic equilibrium model and conduct hindcast experiments to examine the historical trend of market integration. The results show a significant integrating trend of the global agricultural market implied by converging Armington preference distributions (i.e., home bias erosion) in 1995–2015. We demonstrate important implications of allowing the dynamic trend of market integration implied by bias erosion on estimating trade elasticities. By testing the future market integration trend implied by historical home bias integration in the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we show a high sensitivity of long-term agroeconomic projections to future trade and market integration scenarios.

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  • Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine V. & Wise, Marshall A. & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:72:y:2021:i:c:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.07.007
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hindcast validation; Home bias erosion; Market integration; Armington; Agricultural trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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