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Globalisation's Effects on World Agricultural Trade, 1960 to 2050

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  • Kym Anderson

    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

Abstract

Recent globalisation has been characterised by a decline in costs of cross-border trade in farm and other products. It has been driven primarily by the information and communication technology revolution and – in the case of farm products – by reductions in governmental distortions to agricultural production, consumption and trade. Both have boosted economic growth and reduced poverty globally, especially in Asia. The first but maybe not the second of these drivers will continue in coming decades. World food prices will depend also on whether (and if so by how much) farm productivity growth continues to outpace demand growth and to what extent diets in emerging economies move towards livestock and horticultural products at the expense of staples. Demand in turn will be driven by population and income growth, but also by crude oil prices if they remain at current historically high levels, since that will affect biofuel demand. Climate change mitigation policies and adaptation, water market developments, and market access standards particularly for transgenic foods will add to future production, price and trade uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson, 2010. "Globalisation's Effects on World Agricultural Trade, 1960 to 2050," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2010-11, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:adl:cieswp:2010-11
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    File URL: http://www.adelaide.edu.au/cies/publications/present/CIES_DP1011.pdf
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    2. Schmitz, Christoph & Lotze-Campen, Hermann, 2011. "A Spatial Mathematical Model Analysis of the Linkage between Agricultural Trade and Deforestation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115993, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Stefan C. Dekker & Aletta D. Kraneveld & Jerry van Dijk & Agni Kalfagianni & Andre C. Knulst & Herman Lelieveldt & Ellen H. M. Moors & Eggo Müller & Raymond H. H. Pieters & Corné M. J. Pieterse & Step, 2020. "Towards Healthy Planet Diets—A Transdisciplinary Approach to Food Sustainability Challenges," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Kharrazi, Ali & Rovenskaya, Elena & Fath, Brian D. & Yarime, Masaru & Kraines, Steven, 2013. "Quantifying the sustainability of economic resource networks: An ecological information-based approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 177-186.
    5. U. Martin Persson, 2015. "The impact of biofuel demand on agricultural commodity prices: a systematic review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(5), pages 410-428, September.
    6. Huang, Hsin & von Lampe, Martin & van Tongeren, Frank, 2011. "Climate change and trade in agriculture," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 9-13.
    7. Davide Natalini & Giangiacomo Bravo & Aled Wynne Jones, 2019. "Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(5), pages 1153-1173, October.
    8. Foran, Tira & Butler, James R.A. & Williams, Liana J. & Wanjura, Wolf J. & Hall, Andy & Carter, Lucy & Carberry, Peter S., 2014. "Taking Complexity in Food Systems Seriously: An Interdisciplinary Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 85-101.
    9. Claudia Lintner & Susanne Elsen, 2020. "Empowering refugees and asylum seekers in the Italian agriculture sector by linking social cooperative entrepreneurship and social work practices," International Journal of Social Welfare, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(4), pages 356-366, October.
    10. Zhao, Xin & Calvin, Katherine V. & Wise, Marshall A. & Iyer, Gokul, 2021. "The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-17.
    11. Tsiolias, Dimitrios & Keramydas, Christos & Iakovou, Eleftherios & Vlachos, Dimitrios, 2015. "Big Data and Agricultural Supply Chains: Opportunities for Increased Food Security," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Blecker, Thorsten & Kersten, Wolfgang & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Operational Excellence in Logistics and Supply Chains: Optimization Methods, Data-driven Approaches and Security Insights. Proceedings of the Hamburg , volume 22, pages 331-354, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
    12. Chen, Liming & Felipe, Jesus & Kam, Andrew J.Y. & Mehta, Aashish, 2021. "Is employment globalizing?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 74-92.
    13. Calum Brown & Dave Murray-Rust & Jasper van Vliet & Shah Jamal Alam & Peter H Verburg & Mark D Rounsevell, 2014. "Experiments in Globalisation, Food Security and Land Use Decision Making," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-24, December.
    14. Jin, Y. & Jin, S., 2018. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Export: Evidence from Chinese Food Firm-level Data," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277197, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Umair Kashif & Junguo Shi & Snovia Naseem & Muhammad Ayaz & Rehan Sohail Butt & Waris Ali Khan & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan, 2023. "Do agricultural commodity prices asymmetrically affect the performance of value-added agriculture? Evidence from Pakistan using a NARDL model," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    16. Veronique Beckers & Jeroen Beckers & Matthias Vanmaercke & Etienne Van Hecke & Anton Van Rompaey & Nicolas Dendoncker, 2018. "Modelling Farm Growth and Its Impact on Agricultural Land Use: A Country Scale Application of an Agent-Based Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-19, September.
    17. Aiko Endo & Kimberly Burnett & Pedcris M. Orencio & Terukazu Kumazawa & Christopher Wada & Akira Ishii & Izumi Tsurita & Makoto Taniguchi, 2015. "Methods of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus," Working Papers 2015-12, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    18. Gomes, Eduardo & Abrantes, Patrícia & Banos, Arnaud & Rocha, Jorge, 2019. "Modelling future land use scenarios based on farmers’ intentions and a cellular automata approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 142-154.
    19. Ochnio Luiza & Rokicki Tomasz & Koszela Grzegorz & Klepacki Bogdan, 2019. "Diversification of Lamb Meat Imports in EU Countries and its Trends," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 23(4), pages 96-111, December.
    20. Jana Schwarz & Erik Mathijs & Miet Maertens, 2015. "Changing Patterns of Global Agri-Food Trade and the Economic Efficiency of Virtual Water Flows," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-22, May.
    21. Quemada, M. & Lassaletta, L. & Jensen, L.S. & Godinot, O. & Brentrup, F. & Buckley, C. & Foray, S. & Hvid, S.K. & Oenema, J. & Richards, K.G. & Oenema, O., 2020. "Exploring nitrogen indicators of farm performance among farm types across several European case studies," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Globalisation; trade costs; distorted incentives; agricultural protectionism; trade policy reforms;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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