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Globalisation's Effects on World Agricultural Trade, 1960 to 2050

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Author Info

  • Kym Anderson

    ()
    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide)

Abstract

Recent globalisation has been characterised by a decline in costs of cross-border trade in farm and other products. It has been driven primarily by the information and communication technology revolution and – in the case of farm products – by reductions in governmental distortions to agricultural production, consumption and trade. Both have boosted economic growth and reduced poverty globally, especially in Asia. The first but maybe not the second of these drivers will continue in coming decades. World food prices will depend also on whether (and if so by how much) farm productivity growth continues to outpace demand growth and to what extent diets in emerging economies move towards livestock and horticultural products at the expense of staples. Demand in turn will be driven by population and income growth, but also by crude oil prices if they remain at current historically high levels, since that will affect biofuel demand. Climate change mitigation policies and adaptation, water market developments, and market access standards particularly for transgenic foods will add to future production, price and trade uncertainties.

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File URL: http://www.adelaide.edu.au/cies/publications/present/CIES_DP1011.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies in its series Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers with number 2010-11.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:adl:cieswp:2010-11

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Related research

Keywords: Globalisation; trade costs; distorted incentives; agricultural protectionism; trade policy reforms;

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  1. von Braun, Joachim & Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela, 2009. ""Land grabbing" by foreign investors in developing countries: Risks and opportunities," Policy briefs 13, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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Cited by:
  1. Kharrazi, Ali & Rovenskaya, Elena & Fath, Brian D. & Yarime, Masaru & Kraines, Steven, 2013. "Quantifying the sustainability of economic resource networks: An ecological information-based approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 177-186.
  2. Schmitz, Christoph & Lotze-Campen, Hermann, 2011. "A Spatial Mathematical Model Analysis of the Linkage between Agricultural Trade and Deforestation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115993, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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