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Modelling Farm Growth and Its Impact on Agricultural Land Use: A Country Scale Application of an Agent-Based Model

Author

Listed:
  • Veronique Beckers

    (Department of Geography, UNamur, rue de Bruxelles 61, 5000 Namur, Belgium
    Geography and Tourism Research Group, Department Earth and Environmental Science, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Heverlee, Belgium)

  • Jeroen Beckers

    (NVISO, Sinter-Goedelevoorplein 5 Parvis Sainte-Gudule, 1000 Brussels, Belgium)

  • Matthias Vanmaercke

    (Département de Géography, Université de Liège, Quartier Village 4, Clos Mercator 3—B11, 4000 Liège, Belgium)

  • Etienne Van Hecke

    (Geography and Tourism Research Group, Department Earth and Environmental Science, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Heverlee, Belgium)

  • Anton Van Rompaey

    (Geography and Tourism Research Group, Department Earth and Environmental Science, KU Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Heverlee, Belgium)

  • Nicolas Dendoncker

    (Department of Geography, UNamur, rue de Bruxelles 61, 5000 Namur, Belgium)

Abstract

The ongoing economic pressure on farmers has resulted in lower gross margins, lower income, and a continuous decrease in the number of farmers in large parts of the world. Most remaining farmers upscale their activities by taking over the land of their former competitors, resulting in a decrease in agricultural employment and an increase in average farm size, accompanied by specialisation and new management techniques. Understanding these significant trends and their impact on the land use and environment requires a deeper knowledge of the mechanisms involved and the impacts of different policy measures. These processes are ideally represented through agent-based modelling. Currently, agent-based models are rarely for larger regions. This paper presents ADAM (Agricultural Dynamics through Agent-based Modelling), using it for the case study of Belgium. ADAM was created to obtain insights in past and current agricultural trends and to explore possible effects of policy measures. ADAM simulates the evolution of a farmer population and their farms at a fine scale on the country level. It produces yearly outputs on the number of farms, their size, and the type of farming activity on every parcel. Results show that ADAM is capable of adequately modelling a farmer population according to past trends and that it can be used to explore the results of a business-as-usual scenario, therefore showing the possibility of creating agent-based models for larger scale real-world applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Veronique Beckers & Jeroen Beckers & Matthias Vanmaercke & Etienne Van Hecke & Anton Van Rompaey & Nicolas Dendoncker, 2018. "Modelling Farm Growth and Its Impact on Agricultural Land Use: A Country Scale Application of an Agent-Based Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-19, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:7:y:2018:i:3:p:109-:d:170040
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    2. Sahar Shahpari & Janelle Allison & Matthew Tom Harrison & Roger Stanley, 2021. "An Integrated Economic, Environmental and Social Approach to Agricultural Land-Use Planning," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-18, April.
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    6. Egger, Claudine & Plutzar, Christoph & Mayer, Andreas & Dullinger, Iwona & Dullinger, Stefan & Essl, Franz & Gattringer, Andreas & Bohner, Andreas & Haberl, Helmut & Gaube, Veronika, 2022. "Using the SECLAND model to project future land-use until 2050 under climate and socioeconomic change in the LTSER region Eisenwurzen (Austria)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).

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