IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iaae18/277197.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Heterogeneous Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Export: Evidence from Chinese Food Firm-level Data

Author

Listed:
  • Jin, Y.
  • Jin, S.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the heterogeneous impacts of exchange rate volatility on Chinese food exporters. Previous researches that employed country or sector-level aggregated data has yielded controversy conclusions in estimating effects of exchange rate uncertainty on agricultural trade. In this paper, we construct highly disaggregated Chinese food firm-level census data with destination-specific export data from 2000 to 2013 (215,783 sample firms), to discuss the influence based on firm-level characters. In general, this empirical research illustrates that the exchange rate fluctuation has significant negative effects on both trade prices and volumes. More importantly, we find that different firm-level characters (performance and scale) may reinforce or weaken the impact of this volatility on each firm. And this result is robust to different measures and econometric specifications. Acknowledgement : The authors gratefully acknowledge the support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NNSFC-71273233, 71333011), the Major Program of the Key Research Institute of Chinese Ministry of Education (No. 15JJD790032).

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Y. & Jin, S., 2018. "The Heterogeneous Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Export: Evidence from Chinese Food Firm-level Data," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277197, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:277197
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.277197
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/277197/files/1311.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.277197?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael R. Reed, 2008. "Reforming Agricultural Trade for Developing Countries (Vol. 1): Key Issues for a Pro-Development Outcome of the Doha Round," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(3), pages 859-861.
    2. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
    3. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2010. "On the sensitivity of the volume and volatility of bilateral trade flows to exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 79-93, February.
    4. Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2012. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 437-492.
    5. Disdier, Anne-Celia & Fontagne, Lionel & Mimouni, Mondher, 2008. "AJAE Appendix: The Impact of Regulations on Agricultural Trade: Evidence from the SPS and TBT Agreements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-7.
    6. Ho, Kin-Yip & Shi, Yanlin & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2017. "Does news matter in China’s foreign exchange market? Chinese RMB volatility and public information arrivals," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 302-321.
    7. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    8. Miljkovic, Dragan & Marsh, John M. & Brester, Gary W., 2002. "Japanese Import Demand for U.S. Beef and Pork: Effects on U.S. Red Meat Exports and Livestock Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 501-512, December.
    9. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November.
    10. Wang, Kai-Li & Barrett, Christopher B., 2007. "Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 1-31, August.
    11. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
    12. Suchada V. Langley & Marcelo Giugale & William H. Meyers & Charles Hallahan, 2000. "International Financial Volatility and Agricultural Commodity Trade: A Primer," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(3), pages 695-700.
    13. Kandilov, Ivan T., 2008. "“AJAE appendix for “The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Trade”," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1-5, March.
    14. Kafle, Kashi R. & Kennedy, P. Lynn, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Bilateral Agricultural Trade Flows: The Case of the United States and OECD Countries," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119736, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    15. Jason H. Grant, 2013. "Is the growth of regionalism as significant as the headlines suggest? Lessons from agricultural trade," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 93-109, January.
    16. Margot Anderson & Philip Garcia, 1989. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and the Demand for U.S. Soybeans," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(3), pages 721-729.
    17. Guedae Cho & Ian M. Sheldon & Steve McCorriston, 2002. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 931-942.
    18. Richard Pomfret & Kym Anderson, 2014. "Globalisation and Agricultural Trade," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 54(3), pages 285-306, November.
    19. V Polodoo & B Seetanah & R. V Sannassee, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and manufacturing trade: Evidence from Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 50(6), pages 133-148, Special I.
    20. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December.
    21. Langley, Suchada V. & Guigale, Marcelo & Meyers, William H., 2000. "International Financial Volatility and Agricultural Commodity Trade: A Primer," Staff General Research Papers Archive 5054, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    22. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1987. "Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model: Reply," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 69(4), pages 856-856.
    23. Kym Anderson, 2010. "Globalisation's Effects on World Agricultural Trade, 1960 to 2050," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2010-11, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    24. Kim, MinKyoung & Koo, Won W., 2002. "How Differently Do The Agricultural And Industrial Sectors Respond To Exchange Rate Fluctuation?," Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report 23589, North Dakota State University, Department of Agribusiness and Applied Economics.
    25. Agathe Cote, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Trade 9406001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jun 1994.
    26. Kim, MinKyoung & Koo, Won W., 2002. "How Differently Agricultural And Industrial Sectors Respond To Exchange Rate Fluctuation?," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19635, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    27. Ivan T. Kandilov, 2008. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1028-1043.
    28. Luis Servén, 2003. "Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCS," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 212-218, February.
    29. Steve McCorriston, 2011. "Competition, Agricultural Trade Reform and Developing Countries," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 31-46, February.
    30. I. Sheldon & S. Khadka Mishra & D. Pick & S. R. Thompson, 2013. "Exchange rate uncertainty and US bilateral fresh fruit and fresh vegetable trade: an application of the gravity model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(15), pages 2067-2082, May.
    31. V Polodoo & B Seetanah & Sannassee R. V, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and manufacturing trade: Evidence from Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 50(5), pages 241-256, Special I.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 577-605, July.
    2. Yuan, Yan & Awokuse, Titus O., 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility And U.S. Poultry Exports: Evidence From Panel Data," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22083, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
    4. Chandan Sharma & Debdatta Pal, 2019. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Dampen Imports? Commodity-Level Evidence From India," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 696-718, October.
    5. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    6. Andrew Muhammad, 2015. "Price Risk and Exporter Competition in China's Soybean Market," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 188-197, April.
    7. SaangJoon Baak, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 724, Econometric Society.
    8. Páll, Zsombor, 2015. "Three essays on the Russian wheat export," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 80, number 80.
    9. Dengjun Zhang, 2015. "The trade effect of price risk: a system-wide approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1149-1167, May.
    10. Salamat Ali, 2017. "Exchange Rate Effects on Agricultural Exports: Firm-level Evidence from Pakistan," Discussion Papers 2017-09, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    11. Bittencourt, Geraldo & Campos, Antonio, 2015. "Impacts of Exchange Rate Instability upon the Brazilian Agribusiness," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211356, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Kandilov, Ivan T. & Leblebicioglu, AslI, 2011. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on plant-level investment: Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 220-230, March.
    13. Geraldo Moreira Bittencourt & Antônio Carvalho Campo, 2014. "Efeitos Da Instabilidade Da Taxa De Câmbio No Comércio Setorial Entre Brasil E Seus Principais Parceiros Comerciais," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 105, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. SaangJoon Baak, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries Econometric Analysis," Working Papers EMS_2004_02, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    15. Raphaël Chiappini & Yves Jégourel, 2014. "Futures Market Volatility, Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Cereals Exports: Empirical Evidence from France," GREDEG Working Papers 2014-34, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    16. Ian M. Sheldon, 2021. "Reflections on a Career as an Industrial Organization and International Economist," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 468-499, June.
    17. Muteba Mwamba, John & Dube, Sandile, 2014. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade between South Africa, China and USA: The case of the manufacturing sector," MPRA Paper 64389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Huang, Alex YiHou & Peng, Sheng-Pen & Li, Fangjhy & Ke, Ching-Jie, 2011. "Volatility forecasting of exchange rate by quantile regression," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 591-606, October.
    19. Chandan Sharma, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, June.
    20. Gabriel Pino & Dilara Tas & Subhash C. Sharma, 2016. "An investigation of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in East Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(26), pages 2397-2411, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iaae18:277197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.