Estimating the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Volumes
AbstractThis paper takes a new empirical look at the long-standing question of the effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by studying the case of Taiwan's exports to the United States from 1989-1998. In particular, we employ sectoral-level, monthly data and an innovative multivariate GARCH-M estimator with corrections for leptokurtic errors. This estimator allows for the possibility that traders' forward-looking contracting behavior might condition the way in which exchange rate movement and associated risk affect trade volumes. Change in importing country industrial production and change in the expected exchange rate are found to jointly drive the trade volumes. More strikingly, monthly exchange rate volatility affects agricultural trade flows, but not trade in other sectors. These results differ significantly from those obtained using more conventional and restrictive modeling assumptions.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Western Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
Volume (Year): 32 (2007)
Issue (Month): 02 (August)
agricultural trade; exchange rate; expectations; GARCH; International Relations/Trade;
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Kandilov, Ivan T. & Leblebicioglu, AslI, 2011. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on plant-level investment: Evidence from Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 220-230, March.
- Masino, Serena, 2012. "Macroeconomic instability and the incentive to innovate," MPRA Paper 38766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013.
"The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review,"
World Trade Review,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 577-605, July.
- Marc Auboin & Michele Ruta, 2012. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and International Trade: A Literature Review," CESifo Working Paper Series 3868, CESifo Group Munich.
- Serena Masino, 2012. "Macroeconomic Instability and the Incentive to Innovate," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 167, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- Ferto, Imre & Fogarasi, Jozsef, 2012.
"On Trade Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Institutional Quality: The Case of Central European Countries,"
123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland
122510, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Ferto, Imre & Fogarasi, Jozsef, 2011. "On Trade Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Institutional Quality: The Case of Central European Countries," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114351, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Kafle, Kashi R. & Kennedy, P. Lynn, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Bilateral Agricultural Trade Flows: The Case of the United States and OECD Countries," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119736, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
- Hall, Stephen & Hondroyiannis, George & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George & Ulan, Michael, 2010. "Exchange-rate volatility and export performance: Do emerging market economies resemble industrial countries or other developing countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1514-1521, November.
- Masino, Serena, 2012. "Macroeconomic instability and the incentive to innovate," MPRA Paper 38830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2005.
"Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically? Asian Evidence,"
2005-09, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 215-239, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.