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Exchange Rate Volatility and Bilateral Agricultural Trade Flows: The Case of the United States and OECD Countries

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  • Kafle, Kashi R.
  • Kennedy, P. Lynn
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    Abstract

    This study documents the effect of exchange rate volatility and the real exchange rate on bilateral agricultural exports, imports and total trade (exports + imports) flows between the United States and OECD countries. The effect of exchange rate volatility is estimated both separately from and in combination with the real exchange rate. In addition, implementation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and use of the Euro as a national currency (Euro) are included as dummy variables and their effects on trade flows are also determined. A panel data set, which contains 28 cross-sections and 1148 observations, is used for bilateral trade flows between the United States and OECD countries from 1970 to 2010. With an empirical model based on a gravity equation, the results show that exchange rate volatility and the real exchange rate have a statistically significant and negative effect on agricultural, non-agricultural and total exports, imports, and trade (exports +imports) flows. Exchange rate volatility is found to have a greater impact on the agricultural sector, while the real exchange rate has a greater impact on the non-agricultural sector. Effects of FTAs and the Euro are always positive, with FTAs having a greater impact on the agricultural sector and the Euro on the non-agricultural sector.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/119736
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its series 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama with number 119736.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:saea12:119736

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    Keywords: bilateral agricultural trade; exchange rate volatility; OECD¬ countries; gravity equation; International Relations/Trade;

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    1. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, 02.
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