IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mth/ber888/v3y2013i1p227-239.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Bilateral Trade Flows: Insights from Uganda

Author

Listed:
  • Moses H. Lubinga
  • Barnabas Kiiza

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the real exchange rate volatility on the level and volatility of Uganda¡¯s bilateral trade flows with several major trade partners. The study uses secondary data in a two-way bilateral trade flow basis between Uganda and seven of her major trading partners. Panel data methods are used in the analysis. The exchange rate used in the panel analysis is the currency rate between the US dollar and Ugandan Shilling. We use GARCH(1,1) to develop measures of volatility for the real exchange rate and bilateral trade flows. The results show that real exchange rate volatility has a negative and significant effect on the level of Uganda¡¯s bilateral trade flows. The results also show that real exchange rate volatility has a positive and significant effect on the volatility of bilateral trade flows. Thus, it can be seen that prudential management of the real exchange rate is very crucial for trade promotion and macroeconomic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Moses H. Lubinga & Barnabas Kiiza, 2013. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Bilateral Trade Flows: Insights from Uganda," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 227-239, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mth:ber888:v:3:y:2013:i:1:p:227-239
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ber/article/view/3188/2888
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ber/article/view/3188
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    2. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
    3. Klein, Michael W., 1990. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate volatility on United States exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 299-308, September.
    4. Engel, Charles & Wang, Jian, 2011. "International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 37-52, January.
    5. Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Nowak-Lehmann, Felicitas, 2003. "Augmented Gravity Model: An Empirical Application to Mercosur-European Union Trade Flows," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6(2), pages 1-26, November.
    6. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    7. George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George Tavlas & Michael Ulan, 2008. "Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(1), pages 151-180, April.
    8. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    9. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    10. Simwaka, Kisu, 2006. "Dynamics of Malawi’s trade flows: a gravity model approach," MPRA Paper 1122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Guedae Cho & Ian M. Sheldon & Steve McCorriston, 2002. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 931-942.
    12. Christine Sauer & Alok K. Bohara, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-152, February.
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, October.
    14. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-495, August.
    15. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 1998. "The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows," NBER Chapters, in: The Regionalization of the World Economy, pages 33-62, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Kevin B. Grier & Aaron D. Smallwood, 2007. "Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 965-979, June.
    17. Ivan T. Kandilov, 2008. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1028-1043.
    18. Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-152, February.
    19. Aristotelous, Kyriacos, 2001. "Exchange-rate volatility, exchange-rate regime, and trade volume: evidence from the UK-US export function (1889-1999)," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 87-94, July.
    20. De Benedictis Luca & Vicarelli Claudio, 2005. "Trade Potentials in Gravity Panel Data Models," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-33, September.
    21. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    22. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. MOSIKARI, Teboho Jeremiah & EITA, Joel Hinaunye, 2016. "Determinants of South Africa's Exports of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Products to SADC: A Gravity Model Approach - Le determinanti delle esportazioni di prodotti agri coli, della silvicoltura e ," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(3), pages 253-270.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, February.
    2. Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo, 2021. "The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 18(2), pages 57-81, Julio-Dic.
    3. Chandan Sharma, 2019. "Exchange rate volatility and exports from India: a commodity-level panel data analysis," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(1), pages 23-44, June.
    4. Mustafa Caglayan & Omar S. Dahi & Firat Demir, 2013. "Trade Flows, Exchange Rate Uncertainty, and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 905-927, April.
    5. Yuan, Yan & Awokuse, Titus O., 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility And U.S. Poultry Exports: Evidence From Panel Data," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22083, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Kafle, Kashi R. & Kennedy, P. Lynn, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Bilateral Agricultural Trade Flows: The Case of the United States and OECD Countries," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119736, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Innocent U Duru & Millicent Adanne Eze & Abubakar Sadiq Saleh & Benedict I Uzoechina & Gabriel O Ebenyi & Ekechi Chukwuka, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: The Nigerian Scenario," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 12(1), pages 11-28.
    8. Anmar Pretorius & Heinrich Nel, 2018. "Disentangling the exchange rate risk, sectoral export flows and financial development nexus," Working Papers 733, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    9. Jamal Bouoiyour & Refk Selmi, 2016. "A Synthesis of the Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade: A Meta-Regression Analysis," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 263-294, August.
    10. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2015. "A synthesis of the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on international trade via Meta-Regression analysis," MPRA Paper 65737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2021. "Are the effects of exchange‐rate volatility on commodity trade between the U.S. and Mexico symmetric or asymmetric?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2998-3027, April.
    12. Arief Bustaman & Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, 2006. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Indonesia’s Exports to the USA: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200610, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2006.
    13. Sharma, Chandan & Pal, Debdatta, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and India's cross-border trade: A pooled mean group and nonlinear cointegration approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 230-246.
    14. Zhang, Daowei & Li, Yanshu, 2009. "Forest endowment, logging restrictions, and China's wood products trade," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 46-53, March.
    15. Larson, Donald W. & Bittencourt, Maurício Vaz Lobo & Thompson, Stanley R., 2005. "An Examination of the Impacts of Exchange Rate Volatility on Sectoral Trade in the Mercosur," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19572, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhassani & Scott Hegerty, 2012. "Exchange-rate volatility and industry trade between Canada and Mexico," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 389-408, May.
    18. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Bisharat Hussain Chang & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on India's cross‐border trade: Evidence from global financial crisis and multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 64-97, March.
    19. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "How Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty interact with International Trade? A Meta-Analysis Revisited," MPRA Paper 56201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Raphaël Chiappini & Yves Jégourel, 2014. "Futures Market Volatility, Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Cereals Exports: Empirical Evidence from France," GREDEG Working Papers 2014-34, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bilateral trade flows; Trade volatility; Exchange rate volatility; Uganda;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mth:ber888:v:3:y:2013:i:1:p:227-239. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Technical Support Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.macrothink.org/journal/index.php/ber .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.