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The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Indonesia’s Exports to the USA: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure

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Author Info
Arief Bustaman () (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)
Kankesu Jayanthakumaran () (Discipline of Economics, University of Wollongong)

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Abstract

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run impacts of exchange rate volatility on Indonesia’s exports of priority commodities to the United States of America over the monthly period 1997-2005. Estimates of cointegration relations are obtained using ARDL bounds testing procedure. Estimates of the short-run dynamics are obtained using an error-correction model. The results show significant positive and negative coefficients among the range of commodities. However, in the long-run, majority of commodities tend to support the traditional view that higher exchange rate of volatility leads to higher cost and to less foreign trade. The net effect of exchange rate uncertainty on production and exports depends on the degree of relative risk aversion of the exporter of various commodities. This ultimately influences the reallocation of resources by participants.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University in its series Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) with number 200610.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision: Dec 2006
Publication status: Published in International Journal of Applied BUsiness and Economic Research(IJABER) vol. 5(1)
Handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:200610

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange rate volatility; exports; ARDL bounds testing; error-correction model; Indonesia;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  2. Warner, Dennis & Kreinin, Mordechai E, 1983. "Determinants of International Trade Flows," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 96-104, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, . "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," ICMM Discussion Papers 49, Department of Economics University of Strathclyde.
    Other versions:
  4. Agathe Cote, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Trade 9406001, EconWPA, revised 23 Jun 1994. [Downloadable!]
  5. West, Kenneth D. & Cho, Dongchul, 1995. "The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 367-391, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Bredin, D. & Fountas, S. & Murphy, E., 1998. "An Empirical Analysis of Short-Run and Long-Run Irish Export Functions: Does Exchange Rate Volatility Matter?," Department of Economics 22, National University of Ireland, Galway - Department of Economics.
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  7. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-95, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Cushman, David O., 1988. "U.S. bilateral trade flows and exchange risk during the floating period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3-4), pages 317-330, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
  12. Belanger, D. & Gutierrez, S. & Racette, D. & Raynauld, J., 1990. "The Impact Of Exchange Rate Variability On Trade Flows: Further Results On Sectoral U.S. Imports From Canada," Papers 90-08, ECOLE DES HAUTES ETUDES COMMERCIALES (H.E.C.), MONTREAL-.
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  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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