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Exchange rate depreciation and exports: the case of Singapore revisited

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  • WenShwo Fang
  • Stephen Miller

Abstract

This article revisits the weak relationship between exchange rate depreciation and exports for Singapore, using a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean model that simultaneously estimates time-varying risk. The evidence shows that depreciation does not significantly improve exports, but that exchange rate risk significantly impedes exports. In sum, Singaporean policy makers can better promote export growth by stabilizing the exchange rate rather than generating its depreciation.

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500438848
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 273-277

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:39:y:2007:i:3:p:273-277

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  1. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
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  9. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
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  11. Klaassen, Franc, 2004. "Why is it so difficult to find an effect of exchange rate risk on trade?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 817-839, September.
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  14. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
  15. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November.
  16. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
  17. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Lastrapes, William D., 1993. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 298-318, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically? Asian Evidence," Working papers 2005-09, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  2. Longjiang Chen, 2011. "The effect of China's RMB exchange rate movement on its agricultural export: A case study of export to Japan," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 26-41, January.
  3. Brent Hudson & Richard Gerlach, 2008. "A Bayesian approach to relaxing parameter restrictions in multivariate GARCH models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 606-627, November.

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