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Identifying Macroeconomic Linkages to U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance

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  • Jungho Baek
  • Won W. Koo

Abstract

"This study explores the short-run and long-run relationships between the U.S. agricultural trade balance and domestic macroeconomic aggregates and agricultural variables. We use cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction model with quarterly data for 1981-2003. The results show that, in the long run, the exchange rate, agricultural price, and disposable income are weakly exogenous in the U.S. agricultural sector and have significant effects on the trade balance. The combined short-run dynamic effects of the exchange rate, agricultural price and production, and the disposable income jointly explain changes in the trade balance." Copyright (c) 2008 Canadian Agricultural Economics Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie in its journal Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie.

Volume (Year): 56 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 63-77

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Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:56:y:2008:i:1:p:63-77

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  1. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
  2. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The S-Curve," NBER Working Papers 4242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
  4. Bradshaw, Girard W. & Orden, David, 1990. "Granger Causality From The Exchange Rate To Agricultural Prices And Export Sales," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(01), July.
  5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  6. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, September.
  8. Orden, David, 2000. "Exchange Rate Effects On Agricultural Trade And Trade Relations," Policy Harmonization and Adjustment in the North American Agricultural and Food Industry; Proceedings of the 5th Agricultural and Food Policy - 1999 16803, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
  9. Bessler, David A & Babula, Ronald A, 1987. "Forecasting Wheat Exports: Do Exchange Rates Matter?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(3), pages 397-406, July.
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