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Identifying macroeconomic linkages to US agricultural trade balance

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  • Baek, Jungho
  • Koo, Won W.

Abstract

This study explores the short-run and long-run relationships between the U.S. agricultural trade balance and domestic macroeconomic aggregates and agricultural variables. We use cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction model with quarterly data for 1981-2003. The results show that, in the long-run, the exchange rate, agricultural price, and disposable income are weakly exogenous in the U.S. agricultural sector and have significant effects on the trade balance. The combined short-run dynamic effects of the exchange rate, agricultural price and production, and disposable income jointly explain changes in the trade balance.

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Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA with number 21048.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21048

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Keywords: International Relations/Trade;

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  1. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
  2. Bradshaw, Girard W. & Orden, David, 1990. "Granger Causality From The Exchange Rate To Agricultural Prices And Export Sales," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 15(01), July.
  3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
  4. Orden, David, 2000. "Exchange Rate Effects On Agricultural Trade And Trade Relations," Policy Harmonization and Adjustment in the North American Agricultural and Food Industry; Proceedings of the 5th Agricultural and Food Policy - 1999 16803, Farm Foundation, Agricultural and Food Policy Systems Information Workshops.
  5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  6. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
  7. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, October.
  8. Bessler, David A & Babula, Ronald A, 1987. "Forecasting Wheat Exports: Do Exchange Rates Matter?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(3), pages 397-406, July.
  9. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
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