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Identifying macroeconomic linkages to US agricultural trade balance

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  • Baek, Jungho
  • Koo, Won W.

Abstract

This study explores the short-run and long-run relationships between the U.S. agricultural trade balance and domestic macroeconomic aggregates and agricultural variables. We use cointegration analysis and a vector error-correction model with quarterly data for 1981-2003. The results show that, in the long-run, the exchange rate, agricultural price, and disposable income are weakly exogenous in the U.S. agricultural sector and have significant effects on the trade balance. The combined short-run dynamic effects of the exchange rate, agricultural price and production, and disposable income jointly explain changes in the trade balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W., 2006. "Identifying macroeconomic linkages to US agricultural trade balance," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21048, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21048
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.21048
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    3. O.A. Fadeyi & A.A. Ogundeji & B.J. Willemse, 2014. "Establishing the linkages between the South African agricultural trade balance and macroeconomic indicators," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 92-105, November.

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