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Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach

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  • Arndt, Channing
  • Robinson, Sherman
  • Tarp, Finn

Abstract

We introduce a maximum entropy approach to parameter estimation for computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The approach applies information theory to estimating a system of nonlinear simultaneous equations. It has a number of advantages. First, it imposes all general equilibrium constraints. Second, it permits incorporation of prior information on parameter values. Third, it can be applied in the absence of copious data. Finally, it supplies measures of the capacity of the model to reproduce the historical record and the statistical significance of parameter estimates. The method is applied to estimating a CGE model of Mozambique.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series TMD discussion papers with number 40.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:40

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Keywords: Estimation theory.; Equilibrium (Economics) Models.; Mozambique.;

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  1. Clinton R. Shiells & Kenneth A. Reinert, 1993. "Armington Models and Terms-of-Trade Effects: Some Econometric Evidence for North America," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 299-316, May.
  2. Paul V. Preckel, 2001. "Least Squares and Entropy: A Penalty Function Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(2), pages 366-377.
  3. Chris M. Alaouze, 1977. "Estimates of the elasticity of substitution between imported and domestically produced goods classified at the input-output level of aggregation," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers o-13, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  4. Arndt, Channing & Robinson, Sherman & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 375-398, May.
  5. C. Arndt & H. T. Jensen & S. Robinson & F. Tarp, 2000. "Marketing Margins and Agricultural Technology in Mozambique," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 121-137.
  6. Timothy J. Kehoe & Clemente Polo & Ferran Sancho, 1994. "An evaluation of the performance of an applied general equilibrium model of the Spanish economy," Working Papers 480, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. Clinton Shiells & Robert Stern & Alan Deardorff, 1989. "Estimates of the elasticities of substitution between imports and home goods for the United States: Reply," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 125(2), pages 371-374, June.
  8. Zellner, A., 1988. "Optimal Information-Processing And Bayes' Theorem," Papers m8803, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  9. Hendry, David F, 1997. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1330-57, September.
  10. Roberts, Barbara M, 1994. " Calibration Procedure and the Robustness of CGE Models: Simulations with a Model for Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 189-210.
  11. Chris M. Alaouze, 1976. "Estimation of the elasticity of substitution between imported and domestically produced intermediate inputs," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-07, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  12. Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman, 1996. "The Empirical Foundations of Calibration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 87-104, Winter.
  13. Shiells, Clinton R, 1991. "Errors in Import-Demand Estimates Based upon Unit-Value Indexes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(2), pages 378-82, May.
  14. Channing Arndt & Henning Tarp Jensen & Finn Tarp, 2000. "Stabilization and structural adjustment in Mozambique: an appraisal," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 299-323.
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