Validating a Detailed, Dynamic CGE Model of the USA
AbstractComputable general equilibrium (CGE) models can be used to generate detailed forecasts of output growth for commodities/industries and thereby provide baselines from which to calculate the effects of policy changes. In this article, we assess a CGE forecasting method that has been applied in policy analyses in the USA and Australia. Using data available up to 1998, we apply the method with the USAGE model to generate 'genuine forecasts' for 500 US commodities/industries for the period 1998-2005. We then compare these forecasts with actual outcomes and with alternate forecasts derived as extrapolated trends from 1992 to 1998. Copyright © 2010 The Economic Society of Australia.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal Economic Record.
Volume (Year): 86 (2010)
Issue (Month): s1 (09)
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- Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "Validation in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
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