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The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model

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  • Förster, Marcel
  • Jorra, Markus
  • Tillmann, Peter

Abstract

The present paper examines the degree of comovement of gross capital inflows, which is a highly sensitive issue for policy makers. We estimate a dynamic hierarchical factor model that is able to decompose inflows in a sample of 47 economies into (i) a global factor common to all types of flows and all recipient countries, (ii) a factor specific to a given type of capital inflows, (iii) a regional factor and (iv) a country-specific component. We find that the latter explains by far the largest fraction of fluctuations in capital inflows followed by regional factors, which are particularly important for emerging markets' FDI and portfolio inflows as well as bank lending to Emerging Europe. The global factor, however, explains only a small share of the overall variation. We also employ dynamic panel and time series regressions to explain the determinants of the estimated components. The global factor is shown to reflect U.S. financial conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Förster, Marcel & Jorra, Markus & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 101-124.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:48:y:2014:i:pa:p:101-124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.07.004
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    4. Hardik A. Marfatia, 2016. "The Role of Push and Pull Factors in Driving Global Capital Flows," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 62(2), pages 117-146.
    5. Vo, Xuan Vinh & Nguyen, Dong Phong & Ho, Viet Tien & Nguyen, Trung Thong, 2017. "Where do the advanced countries invest? An investigation of capital flows from advanced countries to emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 142-154.
    6. Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2018. "Co-movement between equity and bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 25-38.
    7. Tillmann, Peter, 2013. "Capital inflows and asset prices: Evidence from emerging Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 717-729.
    8. Chiappini, Raphaël & Lahet, Delphine, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. Förster, Marcel & Jorra, Markus & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "The dynamics of international capital flows: Results from a dynamic hierarchical factor model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 101-124.
    10. Roy, Saktinil & Kemme, David M., 2020. "The run-up to the global financial crisis: A longer historical view of financial liberalization, capital inflows, and asset bubbles," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    11. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2020. "Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Eller, Markus & Huber, Florian & Schuberth, Helene, 2020. "How important are global factors for understanding the dynamics of international capital flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    13. Guo, Liang, 2016. "Are U.S. investors blindly chasing returns in foreign countries?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 309-334.
    14. Markus Eller & Florian Huber & Helene Schuberth, 2016. "Understanding the drivers of capital flows into the CESEE countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 79-104.
    15. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan, 2016. "Transmission of global financial shocks to EMU member states: The role of monetary policy and national factors," Discussion Papers 23/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    17. Adler, Gustavo & Djigbenou, Marie-Louise & Sosa, Sebastian, 2016. "Global financial shocks and foreign asset repatriation: Do local investors play a stabilizing role?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 8-28.
    18. Koepke, Robin, 2015. "What Drives Capital Flows to Emerging Markets? A Survey of the Empirical Literature," MPRA Paper 62770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2013. "Local Inflation: Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201303, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    20. Binghui Wu & Tingting Duan, 2019. "Nonlinear Dynamics Characteristic of Risk Contagion in Financial Market Based on Agent Modeling and Complex Network," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-12, June.
    21. Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin, 2020. "The Dynamics of Capital Flow Episodes," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(5), pages 969-1003, August.
    22. Noth, Felix & Ossandon Busch, Matias, 2021. "Banking globalization, local lending, and labor market effects: Micro-level evidence from Brazil," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    23. Ahmet Ihsan Kaya & Lutfi Erden, 2023. "Capital‐flow volatility in emerging markets: A panel GARCH approach," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 172-188, August.
    24. Marcel Förster & Peter Tillmann, 2014. "Reconsidering the International Comovement of Inflation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 841-863, November.
    25. Junyi Shi, 2020. "Re-Measurement Of Short-Term International Capital Flows And Its Application: Evidence From China," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(06), pages 1645-1665, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Dynamic hierarchical factor model; Emerging economies; Financial crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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