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Hot money in bank credit flows to emerging markets during the banking globalization era

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  • Fuertes, Ana-Maria
  • Phylaktis, Kate
  • Yan, Cheng

Abstract

This paper investigates the relative importance of hot money in bank credit and portfolio flows from the US to 18 emerging markets over the period 1988–2012. We deploy state-space models à la Kalman filter to identify the unobserved hot money as the temporary component of each type of flow. The analysis reveals that the importance of hot money relative to the permanent component in bank credit flows has significantly increased during the 2000s relative to the 1990s. This finding is robust to controlling for the influence of push and pull factors in the two unobserved components. The evidence supports indirectly the view that global banks have played an important role in the transmission of the global financial crisis to emerging markets, and endorses the use of regulations to manage international capital flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate & Yan, Cheng, 2016. "Hot money in bank credit flows to emerging markets during the banking globalization era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:60:y:2016:i:c:p:29-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.10.002
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    2. Wang, Xichen & Yan, Ji (Karena) & Yan, Cheng & Gozgor, Giray, 2021. "Emerging stock market exuberance and international short-term flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Xichen Wang & Cheng Yan, 2022. "Does the Relative Importance of the Push and Pull Factors of Foreign Capital Flows Vary Across Quantiles?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 252-299, June.
    4. Yan, Cheng & Phylaktis, Kate & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2016. "On cross-border bank credit and the U.S. financial crisis transmission to equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 108-134.
    5. Wira Ganet Aribowo, 2018. "Analysis of foreign direct investment as a comparison of macroeconomic factors in seven countries Asean 5, China and Japan during period 1996-2015," Journal of Economic Development, Environment and People, Alliance of Central-Eastern European Universities, vol. 7(4), pages 29-42, December.
    6. Cheng Yan, 2018. "Hot money in disaggregated capital flows," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(14), pages 1190-1223, September.
    7. Tang, Chun & Liu, Xiaoxing & Zhou, Donghai, 2022. "Financial market resilience and financial development: A global perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Yan, Cheng & Wang, Xichen, 2018. "The non-persistent relationship between foreign equity flows and emerging stock market returns across quantiles," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 38-54.
    9. Zhang, Yihao & Chen, Fang & Huang, Jian & Shenoy, Catherine, 2019. "Hot money flows and production uncertainty: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Shi, Yukun & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Xu, Yaofei & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Market co-movement between credit default swap curves and option volatility surfaces," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. Zhang, Jinhua & Wang, Guipu & Yan, Cheng, 2020. "Can foreign equity funds outperform their benchmarks? New evidence from fund-holding data for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 11-20.
    12. Fang, Jianchun & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi-Keung Marco & Wu, Wanshan & Yan, Cheng, 2020. "Listed zombie firms and top executive gender: Evidence from an emerging market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International capital flows; Hot money; Crisis transmission; Banking globalisation; Kalman filter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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