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Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models

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  • Breitung, Jörg
  • Eickmeier, Sandra

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the consequences of structural breaks in the factor loadings for the specification and estimation of factor models based on principal components and suggest procedures for testing for structural breaks. It is shown that structural breaks severely inflate the number of factors identified by the usual information criteria. The hypothesis of a structural break is tested by using LR, LM and Wald statistics. The LM test (which performs best in our Monte Carlo simulations) is generalized to test for structural breaks in factor models where the break date is unknown and the common factors and idiosyncratic components are serially correlated. The proposed test procedures are applied to datasets from the US and the euro area.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 163 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 71-84

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:163:y:2011:i:1:p:71-84

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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Keywords: Structural break Factor model LM test;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Matteo Luciani & Antoniomaria Conti & Matteo Barigozzi, 2013. "Do Euro Area Countries Respond Asymmetrically to the Common Monetary Policy?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/153330, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Chen, Liang & Dolado, Juan Jose & Gonzalo, Jesus, 2011. "Detecting big structural breaks in large factor models," MPRA Paper 31344, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio M. Conti & Matteo Luciani, 2013. "Do euro area countries respond asymmetrically to the common monetary policy?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 923, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Brandon J. Bates & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, . "Consistent factor estimation in dynamic factor models with structural instability," Working Paper 84631, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  5. Johannes Tang Kristensen, 2012. "Factor-Based Forecasting in the Presence of Outliers: Are Factors Better Selected and Estimated by the Median than by The Mean?," CREATES Research Papers 2012-28, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  6. Cheng, Xu & Liao, Zhipeng & Schorfheide, Frank, 2013. "Shrinkage estimation of high-dimensional factor models with structural instabilities," Working Papers 14-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  7. Chihwa Kao & Lorenzo Trapani & Giovanni Urga, 2012. "Testing for Breaks in Cointegrated Panels," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 135, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  8. Xu Cheng & Zhipeng Liao & Frank Schorfheide, 2014. "Shrinkage Estimation of High-Dimensional Factor Models with Structural Instabilities," NBER Working Papers 19792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Chen, Liang, 2012. "Identifying observed factors in approximate factor models: estimation and hypothesis testing," MPRA Paper 37514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2013. "Testing for Structural Stability of Factor Augmented Forecasting Models," Departmental Working Papers 201314, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  11. YAMAMOTO, Yohei & TANAKA, Shinya, 2013. "Testing for Factor Loading Structural Change under Common Breaks," Discussion Papers 2013-17, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  12. Xu Han & Atsushi Inoue, 2011. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Dynamic Factor Models," TERG Discussion Papers 306, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University, revised May 2013.

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