IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed013/1214.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy, External Finance Dependence, and the Cross-section of Stock Returns: A FAVAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Duarte

    (MIT)

  • Carlos Carvalho

    (Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro)

  • Tiago Berriel

    (EPGE-FGV)

Abstract

We use an identified factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) to estimate the impact of monetary policy shocks on the cross-section of stock returns. Our FAVAR combines unobserved factors extracted from a large set of financial and macroeconomic indicators with the Federal Funds rate. We find that monetary policy shocks have heterogeneous effects on the cross-section of stock returns. These effects are well explained by the degree of external finance dependence, and by variables that arguably correlate with it. We also find that the cross- section of stock return responses to monetary policy shocks can be very well explained by the response of the Fama-French factors to those shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Duarte & Carlos Carvalho & Tiago Berriel, 2013. "Monetary Policy, External Finance Dependence, and the Cross-section of Stock Returns: A FAVAR Approach," 2013 Meeting Papers 1214, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:1214
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2013/paper_1214.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    3. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    4. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1998. "Default and Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model of Debt," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(1), pages 1-41.
    5. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 350-384, March.
    6. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    7. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    8. Li, Erica X.N. & Palomino, Francisco, 2014. "Nominal rigidities, asset returns, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 210-225.
    9. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-948, November.
    10. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
    11. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    12. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
    13. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laeven, Luc & Tong, Hui, 2012. "US monetary shocks and global stock prices," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 530-547.
    2. Cucciniello, Maria Chiara & Deleidi, Matteo & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2022. "The cost channel of monetary policy: The case of the United States in the period 1959–2018," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 409-433.
    3. Martin T. Bohl & Pierre L. Siklos & David Sondermann, 2008. "European Stock Markets and the ECB's Monetary Policy Surprises," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 117-130, August.
    4. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2021. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 74-107, July.
    5. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    6. Florian Huber & Manfred M. Fischer, 2018. "A Markov Switching Factor‐Augmented VAR Model for Analyzing US Business Cycles and Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(3), pages 575-604, June.
    7. Xinsheng Lu & Ling Qu & Ying Zhou, 2015. "The Impact of Monetary Surprises on Australian Financial Futures Markets: An Insight into Cash Rate Target Announcements," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 151-166, September.
    8. Kemal Bagzibagli, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism and time variation in the Euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 781-823, November.
    9. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    10. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    11. Dedola, Luca & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1543-1569, August.
    12. Xinsheng Lu & Ying Zhou & Mingting Kou, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Australian Financial Futures Markets," Working Papers 2013-01, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.
    13. John Ammer & Clara Vega & Jon Wongswan, 2010. "International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Stock Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 179-198, September.
    14. Lahura, Erick, 2012. "Midiendo los efectos de la política monetaria a través de las expectativas de mercado," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 23, pages 39-52.
    15. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Sun, Rongrong, 2014. "Review over Empirical Evidence on Real Effects of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 58513, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    18. Croushore, Dean & Evans, Charles L., 2006. "Data revisions and the identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 1135-1160, September.
    19. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    20. Gregory Bauer & Clara Vega, 2004. "The Monetary Origins of Asymmetric Information in International Equity Markets," Staff Working Papers 04-47, Bank of Canada.
    21. Lutz, Chandler, 2015. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 89-105.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed013:1214. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.