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A New Look at Economic Convergence in Europe: A Common Factor Approach

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Author Info
Bettina Becker () (Department of Economics, Loughborough University)
Stephen G. Hall () (Department of Economics, University of Leicester)

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Abstract

We propose a common factor approach to analyse convergence, which we implement using principal components analysis. We show that this method provides a useful new way of approaching the convergence debate. We apply this technique to a dataset of nominal and real monthly exchange rates of the twelve member countries of the European Monetary Union over the period 1970-2001. Our empirical results neatly capture the convergence patterns related to the various regimes from Bretton Woods toward EMU. The UK's Pound Sterling has been on a gradual convergence path to the Euro, although convergence is less progressed than it was for the EMU countries by 1999.

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File URL: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/ec/RePEc/lbo/lbowps/Becker_Hall.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Loughborough University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2007_09.

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Date of creation: Feb 2007
Date of revision: Feb 2007
Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2007_09

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Related research
Keywords: Convergence; exchange rates; European Monetary Union; nominal convergence; real convergence; principal components analysis.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 1990. "The `New' EMS," CEPR Discussion Papers 369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, 1990. "The "New" EMS," Working Papers 86, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  4. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Common stationary and non-stationary factors in the euro area analyzed in a large-scale factor model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,02, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Iikka Korhonen, 2003. "Some empirical tests on the integration of economic activity between the euro area and the accession countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 11(1), pages 177-196, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. T. Anderson, 1963. "The use of factor analysis in the statistical analysis of multiple time series," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Hall, Stephen G & Robertson D & Wickens, M R, 1997. "Measuring Economic Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 131-43, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1993. "The Unstable EMS," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 24(1993-1), pages 51-144. [Downloadable!]
  11. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1993. " A Test for the Number of Factors in an Approximate Factor Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1263-91, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Eickmeier, Sandra & Breitung, Jorg, 2006. "How synchronized are new EU member states with the euro area? Evidence from a structural factor model," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 538-563, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Aziakpono, Meshach & Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2007. "Banking Market Integration in the SADC Countries: Evidence from Interest Rate Analyses," Research Memoranda 047, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
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