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How Far From the Euro Area? Measuring Convergence of Inflation Rates in Eastern Europe

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  • Bettina Becker
  • Stephen G. Hall

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Abstract

We present a common factor framework of convergence which we implement using principal components analysis. We apply this technique to a dataset of monthly inflation rates of EMU and the Eastern European New Member Countries (NMC) over 1996-2007. In the earlier years, the NMC rates moved independently from an average of the three best performing countries over the past twelve months, while they moved somewhat closer in line with them in the later years. Looking at the sample of the EMU and NMC countries as a whole, there is evidence of a formation of convergence clubs across the two groups.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 09/1.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:09/1

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Postal: Department of Economics University of Leicester, University Road. Leicester. LE1 7RH. UK
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Keywords: Convergence; inflation rates; European Monetary Union; principal components analysis;

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  1. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bettina Becker & Stephen G. Hall, 2009. "A new look at economic convergence in Europe: a common factor approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 85-97.
  3. Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    • Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  4. T. Anderson, 1963. "The use of factor analysis in the statistical analysis of multiple time series," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, March.
  5. Volker Nitsch, 2004. "Have a Break, Have a ... National Currency: When Do Monetary Unions Fall Apart?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1113, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Hall, Stephen G & Robertson D & Wickens, M R, 1997. "Measuring Economic Convergence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 131-43, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Pierre-Richard Agenor & Joshua Aizenman, 2008. "Capital Market Imperfections and the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," NBER Working Papers 14088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert Garnett & Lisa Vanderlinden, 2011. "Reflexive Pedagogy: Disciplinary Idioms as Resources for Teaching," Working Papers 201106, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
  3. Hiranya Nath & Kiril Tochkov, 2011. "Relative Inflation in the EU Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 201105, Texas Christian University, Department of Economics.
  4. Hiranya Nath & Kiril Tochkov, 2013. "Relative inflation dynamics in the new EU member countries of Central and Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, August.
  5. Nikolay Nenovsky & Kiril Tochkov, 2013. "The Distribution Dynamics of Income in Central and Eastern Europe relative to the EU: A Nonparametric Analysis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1063, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.

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