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Structural changes in large economic datasets: A nonparametric homogeneity test

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  • Casarin, Roberto
  • Costola, Michele

Abstract

This paper proposes a Bayesian nonparametric homogeneity test for distributional changes. We provide an asymptotic approximation of the Bayes factor and show that it is related to the Shannon entropy. The proposed test is suitable for large high-dimensional datasets which otherwise require time-consuming computation for posterior approximation. An analysis on the FRED-QD macroeconomic dataset shows the ability of the test to detect relevant structural changes in the US economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele, 2019. "Structural changes in large economic datasets: A nonparametric homogeneity test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 55-59.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:176:y:2019:i:c:p:55-59
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.12.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Costola, Michele & Pasqualini, Andrea, 2016. "An entropy-based early warning indicator for systemic risk," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 42-59.
    2. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2014. "Estimating turning points using large data sets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 368-381.
    3. Costantini, Mauro & Lupi, Claudio, 2016. "Identifying stationary series in panels: A Monte Carlo evaluation of sequential panel selection methods," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 9-14.
    4. Duncan, Roberto, 2015. "A threshold model of the US current account," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 270-280.
    5. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2016. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 574-589, October.
    6. Keisuke Hirano, 2002. "Semiparametric Bayesian Inference in Autoregressive Panel Data Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 781-799, March.
    7. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 675-685, April.
    8. Watson, Mark W. & Stock, James H., 2014. "Estimating turning points using large data sets," Scholarly Articles 33192198, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    9. Fabio Canova, 2004. "Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income Per Capita: A Predictive Density Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-77, February.
    10. Bassetti, Federico & Casarin, Roberto & Leisen, Fabrizio, 2014. "Beta-product dependent Pitman–Yor processes for Bayesian inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 49-72.
    11. Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Racine, Jeff, 2002. "Entropy and predictability of stock market returns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 107(1-2), pages 291-312, March.
    12. Travis J. Berge & Òscar Jordà, 2011. "Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 246-277, April.
    13. Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2011. "Stick-breaking autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 383-396, June.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1908 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Nikola Gradojevic & Marko Caric, 2017. "Predicting Systemic Risk with Entropic Indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 16-25, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Zhanshou & Xu, Qiongyao & Li, Huini, 2019. "Inference for multiple change points in heavy-tailed time series via rank likelihood ratio scan statistics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 53-56.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian nonparametric test; Distributional changes; Large datasets; US economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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