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Speculative Price Bubbles in the Rice Market and the 1974 Bangladesh Famine

Author

Listed:
  • Munir Quddus

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Southern Indiana)

  • Charles Becker

    (Department of Economics, University of Colorado at Denver)

Abstract

This paper investigates the role played by speculative price bubbles in destabilizing food markets in Bangladesh during the 1974 famine. The hypothesis of speculative price bubbles in the rice market is tested using weekly price data. These tests are based on a theoretical model of storable food markets in which agents exhibit rational expectations. It is shown that such markets are susceptible to destabilizing trends by self-fulfilling expectations. While ¡°explosive price bubbles¡± have received extensive attention in macroeconomics, they have not been used in development economics to explain famines. Amartya Sen has hypothesized that speculative forces are a possible source of instability in the food market. Our empirical tests based on techniques from the recent literature on price bubbles lend some credence to the hypothesis that excessive speculation may have produced price bubbles in the rice market which directly contributed to the Bangladesh famine in 1974.

Suggested Citation

  • Munir Quddus & Charles Becker, 2000. "Speculative Price Bubbles in the Rice Market and the 1974 Bangladesh Famine," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 155-175, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:jed:journl:v:25:y:2000:i:2:p:155-175
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
    3. Sen, Amartya K, 1977. "Starvation and Exchange Entitlements: A General Approach and Its Application to the Great Bengal Famine," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 33-59, March.
    4. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
    5. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-1214, December.
    6. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-770, August.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1986. "On Testing for Self-fulfilling Speculative Price Bubbles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(3), pages 545-552, October.
    8. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M. & Scott, Louis O., 1984. "Multi-country tests for price level bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 329-340, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nourin Shabnam & Mehmet A. Ulubaşoğlu & Cahit Guven, 2022. "Food Affordability and Double Catastrophe in Early Life: Lessons from the 1974–75 Bangladesh Famine," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(S1), pages 24-51, September.
    2. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Catherine Simonet, 2016. "Are grain markets in Niger driven by speculation?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 714-735.
    3. Shabnam, Nourin & Guven, Cahit & Ulubasoglu, Mehmet, 2021. "Lack of Food Access and Double Catastrophe in Early Life: Lessons from the 1974–1975 Bangladesh Famine," MPRA Paper 109653, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kübra Akyol Özcan, 2023. "Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Tiia‐Maria Pasanen & Miikka Voutilainen & Jouni Helske & Harri Högmander, 2022. "A Bayesian spatio‐temporal analysis of markets during the Finnish 1860s famine," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1282-1302, November.
    6. Alessandro De Matteis & Fethiye Burcu Turkmen Ceylan & Bereket Kebede, 2021. "Market resilience in times of crisis: The case of Darfur," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 1107-1127, August.
    7. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2002. "Adam Smith and Amartya Sen : markets and famines in pre-industrial Europe," Working Papers 200218, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    8. Madhusudan Ghosh, 2011. "Agricultural Policy Reforms And Spatial Integration Of Food Grain Markets In India," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 15-37, June.

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