IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rdg/icmadp/icma-dp2002-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting the Collapse of Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the S&P 500 Composite Index

Author

Listed:
  • Chris Brooks

    (ICMA Centre, University of Reading)

  • Apostolos Katsaris

    (ICMA Centre, University of Reading)

Abstract

In this paper we test for the presence of periodically partially collapsing, positive and negative, speculative bubbles in the S&P 500 Composite Index for the period 1888-2001. We extend existing regime-switching models of speculative behaviour by including abnormal volume as an indicator of the probable time of the bubble collapse. Abnormal volume is included as both a classifying variable that helps predict the probability of the bubble surviving, and as a factor of risk in the surviving state equation. Increased volume is considered a signal that market beliefs concerning the future of the bubble are changing. We show that abnormal volume is a significant predictor and classifier of returns. Furthermore, we examine the financial usefulness of the augmented model by studying the risk-adjusted profits of a trading rule formed using inferences from it. Use of the augmented model trading rule leads to higher risk adjusted returns than those obtained from employing existing models or a buy and hold strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2002. "Forecasting the Collapse of Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the S&P 500 Composite Index," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2002-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    • Handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2002-04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.icmacentre.ac.uk/pdf/discussion/DP2002-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "Fads or bubbles?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 335-362.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. van Norden Simon & Vigfusson Robert, 1998. "Avoiding the Pitfalls: Can Regime-Switching Tests Reliably Detect Bubbles?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, April.
    4. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2001. "Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 345-381, September.
    5. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching, and Stock Market Crashes," Econometrics 9502003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Camerer, Colin, 1989. "Bubbles and Fads in Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(1), pages 3-41.
    7. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1979. "Speculative bubbles, crashes and rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 387-389.
    8. Kenneth D. West, 1987. "A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 553-580.
    9. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei, 1991. "The stock market bubble of 1929: evidence from clsoed-end mutual funds," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(3), pages 675-700, September.
    10. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1999. "Detecting Periodically Collapsing Bubbles: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 143-154, March-Apr.
    11. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    12. Weil, Philippe, 1990. "On the Possibility of Price Decreasing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1467-1474, November.
    13. Kenneth D. West, 1988. "Bubbles, Fads, and Stock Price Volatility Tests: A Partial Evaluation," NBER Working Papers 2574, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. White, Eugene N, 1990. "The Stock Market Boom and Crash of 1929 Revisited," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 67-83, Spring.
    15. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-770, August.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8701 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M. & Scott, Louis O., 1984. "Multi-country tests for price level bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 329-340, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010. "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-361, June.
    2. Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2002. "A Three-Regime Model of Speculative Behaviour: Modelling the Evolution of Bubbles in the S&P 500 Composite Index," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2002-14, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    4. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    5. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    6. Robert A. Jarrow, 2015. "Asset Price Bubbles," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 201-218, December.
    7. John Knight & Stephen Satchell & Nandini Srivastava, 2012. "Steady-State Distributions for Models of Bubbles: their Existence and Econometric Implications," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1208, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    8. Xiaoliang Liu & Guenther Filler & Martin Odening, 2013. "Testing for speculative bubbles in agricultural commodity prices: a regime switching approach," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 73(1), pages 179-200, May.
    9. Dmitry Kulikov, 2012. "Testing for Rational Speculative Bubbles on the Estonian Stock Market," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 4(1).
    10. Chung, Heetaik & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1998. "Fundamental and nonfundamental components in stock prices of Pacific-Rim countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 321-346, August.
    11. Knight, John & Satchell, Stephen & Srivastava, Nandini, 2014. "Steady state distributions for models of locally explosive regimes: Existence and econometric implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 281-288.
    12. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1989. "Testable Implications of Indeterminacies in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Yuchao Fan, 2022. "Dissecting the dot-com bubble in the 1990s NASDAQ," Papers 2206.14130, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    14. Chan, Kalok & McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1998. "Are there rational speculative bubbles in Asian stock markets?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 125-151, May.
    15. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2017. "Asymmetric adjustment and smooth breaks in dividend yields: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 339-354.
    16. Angelos Kanas & Yue Ma, 2004. "Intrinsic bubbles revisited: evidence from nonlinear cointegration and forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 237-250.
    17. Kanas, Angelos, 2005. "Nonlinearity in the stock price-dividend relation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 583-606, June.
    18. Munir Quddus & Charles Becker, 2000. "Speculative Price Bubbles in the Rice Market and the 1974 Bangladesh Famine," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 155-175, December.
    19. Su, Chi-Wei & Li, Zheng-Zheng & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2017. "When Will Occur the Crude Oil Bubbles?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-6.
    20. Zhao, Yanping & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Su, Chi-Wei & Nian, Rui, 2015. "Gold bubbles: When are they most likely to occur?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34, pages 17-23.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market bubbles; fundamental values; dividends; regime switching; speculative bubble tests;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2002-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marie Pearson (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bsrdguk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.