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U.S. industry-level returns and oil prices

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  • Fan, Qinbin
  • Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R.

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates and provides further support for the oil price effect documented in Driesprong et al. (2008) in the U.S. industry-level returns. We find that oil price predictability is concentrated in a relatively small number of industry-level returns, the relevant measure for a study of the oil effect is percentage change in oil spot prices, and changes in oil futures prices have virtually no prediction power for industry-level returns. With percentage changes in oil spot prices as the predictor, approximately one fifth of industry returns are oil-predictable. We detect a two trading weeks delay in reaction to oil price changes which is consistent with the Hong and Stein (1996) underreaction hypothesis. These results are robust to various alternative specifications, and are shown to be unrelated to time-varying risk premia. Moreover, we demonstrate that trading strategies based on the oil effect generate superior gains in comparison with buy-and-hold strategy in the presence of reasonable trading costs.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

Volume (Year): 22 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 112-128

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:22:y:2012:i:1:p:112-128

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

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Keywords: Industry-level returns; Market efficiency; Oil prices; Return predictability; Underreaction;

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Cited by:
  1. Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil, 2014. "Oil shocks, stock market prices, and the U.S. dividend yield decomposition," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 639-649.
  2. Zhang, Chuanguo & Chen, Xiaoqing, 2014. "The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s bulk commodity markets and fundamental industries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-41.

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