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Should Oil Prices Receive So Much Attention? An Evaluation Of The Predictive Power Of Oil Prices For The U.S. Economy

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Author Info
LANCE BACHMEIER
QI LI
DANDAN LIU

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Abstract

"This paper evaluates the potential gains from using oil prices to forecast a variety of measures of inflation, economic activity, and monetary policy-related variables. With a few exceptions, oil prices do not have any predictive content for these variables. This finding is robust to the use of rolling forecast windows, the use of industry-level data, changes in the forecast horizon, and allowing for nonlinearities. "("JEL "Q43, E37, C32) Copyright (c) 2007 Western Economic Association International.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00095.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Western Economic Association International in its journal Economic Inquiry.

Volume (Year): 46 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 528-539
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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:46:y:2008:i:4:p:528-539

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.

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