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Learning, The Forward Premium Puzzle, And Market Efficiency

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  • Chakraborty, Avik
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

    Volume (Year): 13 (2009)
    Issue (Month): S1 (May)
    Pages: 31-57

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    Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:13:y:2009:i:s1:p:31-57_08

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    2. Chakraborty, Avik & Evans, George W., 2008. "Can perpetual learning explain the forward-premium puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 477-490, April.
    3. Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1985. "The Covariation of Risk Premiums and Expected Future Spot Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 1749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
    7. Evans, George W, 1986. "A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 621-36, September.
    8. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, 2005. "A Simple Recursive Forecasting Model," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2005-3, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 01 Feb 2005.
    9. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    10. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-48.
    11. Mark, Nelson C & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(451), pages 1686-1706, November.
    12. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September.
    13. Groen, Jan J J, 2005. "Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-country Panel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 495-516, June.
    14. Hansen, Bruce E., 1992. "Testing for parameter instability in linear models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 517-533, August.
    15. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    16. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Trends in Excess Returns in Currency and Bond Markets," Working Papers 92-32, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    17. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    18. Cavaglia, Stefano M F G & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C P, 1994. "On the Biasedness of Forward Foreign Exchange Rates: Irrationality or Risk Premia?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 321-43, July.
    19. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    20. Bams, Dennis & Walkowiak, Kim & Wolff, Christian C. P., 2004. "More evidence on the dollar risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 271-282, March.
    21. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    22. Mark, Nelson C., 1985. "On time varying risk premia in the foreign exchange market: An econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-18, July.
    23. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
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