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The Effectiveness of Foreign-Exchange Intervention: Recent Experience

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Author Info
Maurice Obstfeld

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Abstract

Since the September 1985 Plaza Hotel announcement by the Group of Five industrial countries, a substantial realignment of exchange rates has been achieved. At the same time, foreign exchange market intervention, much of it concerted and much of it sterilized, has been undertaken on a scale not seen since the early 1970s This paper takes a fresh look at the effectiveness of sterilized intervention in the light of recent experience. The paper concludes that sterilized intervention, in itself, has played an unimportant role in promoting exchange-rate realignment. Instead, clear shifts in patterns of monetary and fiscal policy appear to have been the main medium-term policy factors determining currency values. Over certain shorter time periods, intervention has influenced exchange markets through a signalling channel; but this signalling effect has been operative only as a result of authorities' frequent readiness to adjust monetary policies promptly to counteract unwelcome exchange-market pressures. The paper makes some progress in formalizing reasons why intervention might enhance the credibility of messages that governments could convey as well through simple verbal announcements.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 2796.

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Date of creation: Feb 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2796

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  1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a Target Zone with Devaluation Risk," NBER Working Papers 3466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Marvin Goodfriend, 2001. "Why we need an "accord" for Federal Reserve credit policy : a note," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 23-32. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Shankar, Rashmi, 2002. "Distinguishing between observationally equivalent theories of crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2926, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Robert Andrew & John Broadbent, 1994. "Reserve Bank Operations in the Foreign Exchange Market: Effectiveness and Profitability," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9406, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Neil, Beattie & Fillion, Jean-François, 1999. "An Intraday Analysis of the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Working Papers 99-4, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Richard T. Baillie & William P. Osterberg, 1998. "Central bank intervention and overnight uncovered interest rate parity," Working Paper 9823, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  7. Joon-Hwan Im, 2001. "Optimal Currency Target Zones: How Wide Should Exchange Rate Bands Be?," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 61-93, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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