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Crisis? What Crisis? Currency vs. Banking in the Financial Crisis of 1931

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  • Albrecht Ritschl
  • Samad Sarferaz

Abstract

This paper examines the role of currency and banking in the German financial crisis of 1931 for both Germany and the U.S. We specify a structural dynamic factor model to identify financial and monetary factors separately for each of the two economies. We find that monetary transmission through the Gold Standard played only a minor role in causing and propagating the crisis, while financial distress was important. We also find evidence of crisis propagation from Germany to the U.S. via the banking channel. Banking distress in both economies was apparently not endogenous to monetary policy. Results confirm Bernanke's (1983) conjecture that an independent, non-monetary financial channel of crisis propagation was operative in the Great Depression.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2010-014.

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Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-014

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Keywords: Great Depression; 1931 financial crisis; international business cycle transmission; Bayesian factor analysis; currency; banking;

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References

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  1. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2007. "Business cycle transmission from the US to Germany--A structural factor approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 521-551, April.
  2. Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997. "Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
  3. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1996. "Inflows of capital to developing countries in the 1990s," MPRA Paper 13707, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes regression with autoregressive errors : A Gibbs sampling approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 275-294, August.
  6. Kaminsky, Graciela L & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1998. "Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and Now," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 444-48, May.
  7. Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 1996. "Baynesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions," Macroeconomics 9610002, EconWPA.
  8. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Richardson, Gary & Van Horn, Patrick, 2009. "Intensified Regulatory Scrutiny and Bank Distress in New York City During the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(02), pages 446-465, June.
  10. Schnabel, Isabel, 2002. "The German Twin Crisis of 1931," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 02-48, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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Cited by:
  1. Albrecht Ritschl, 2012. "Reparations, Deficits, and Debt Default: the Great Depression in Germany," CEP Discussion Papers dp1149, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  2. Martin, Ralf, 2010. "Productivity spreads, market power spreads and trade ," Open Access publications from London School of Economics and Political Science CEPDP0997, London School of Economics and Political Science.
  3. Luis Araujo & Bernardo Guimaraes, 2010. "There Will Be Money," CEP Discussion Papers dp1004, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

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