Oil Volatility and the Option Value of Waiting: An analysis of the G-7
AbstractThere has recently been considerable interest in the potential adverse effects associated with excessive uncertainty in energy futures markets. Theoretical models of investment under uncertainty predict that increased uncertainty will tend to induce firms to delay investment. These models are widely utilized in capital budgeting decisions, particularly in the energy sector. There is relatively little empirical evidence, however, on whether such channels have industry-wide effects. Using a sample of G7 countries we examine whether uncertainty about a prominent commodity — oil — affects the time series variation in manufacturing activity. Our primary result is consistent with the predictions of real options theory — uncertainty about oil prices has had a negative and significant effect on manufacturing activity in Canada, France, UK and US.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Geary Institute, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 201004.
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Oil; Volatility; Vector autoregression; Multivariate GARCH-in-Mean VAR;
Other versions of this item:
- Don Bredin & John Elder & Stilianos Fountas, 2010. "Oil Volatility and the Option Value of Waiting: An analysis of the G-7," Discussion Paper Series 2010_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2010.
- G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
- G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2010-04-17 (Business Economics)
- NEP-ENE-2010-04-17 (Energy Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Van Robays, Ine, 2012.
"Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks,"
Working Paper Series
1479, European Central Bank.
- Ine Van Robays, 2012. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Impact of Oil Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3937, CESifo Group Munich.
- Soojin Jo, 2012. "The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 12-40, Bank of Canada.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Geary Tech).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.