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Oil Volatility and the Option Value of Waiting: An analysis of the G-7

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Author Info

  • Don Bredin

    (University College Dublin)

  • John Elder

    (Colorado State University)

  • Stilianos Fountas

    (University of Macedonia)

Abstract

There has recently been considerable interest in the potential adverse effects associated with excessive uncertainty in energy futures markets. Theoretical models of investment under uncertainty predict that increased uncertainty will tend to induce firms to delay investment. These models are widely utilized in capital budgeting decisions, particularly in the energy sector. There is relatively little empirical evidence, however, on whether such channels have industry-wide effects. Using a sample of G7 countries we examine whether uncertainty about a prominent commodity — oil — affects the time series variation in manufacturing activity. Our primary result is consistent with the predictions of real options theory — uncertainty about oil prices has had a negative and significant effect on manufacturing activity in Canada, France, UK and US.

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File URL: http://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp201004.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Geary Institute, University College Dublin in its series Working Papers with number 201004.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201004

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Keywords: Oil; Volatility; Vector autoregression; Multivariate GARCH-in-Mean VAR;

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Cited by:
  1. Van Robays, Ine, 2012. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks," Working Paper Series 1479, European Central Bank.
  2. Soojin Jo, 2012. "The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 12-40, Bank of Canada.

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