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Oil Futures Prices in a Production Economy with Investment Constraints

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  • LEONID KOGAN
  • DMITRY LIVDAN
  • AMIR YARON
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    Abstract

    We document a new stylized fact, that the relationship between the volatility of oil futures prices and the slope of the forward curve is nonmonotone and has a V-shape. This pattern cannot be generated by standard models that emphasize storage. We develop an equilibrium model of oil production in which investment is irreversible and capacity constrained. Investment constraints affect firms' investment decisions and imply that the supply elasticity changes over time. Since demand shocks must be absorbed by changes in prices or changes in supply, time-varying supply elasticity results in time-varying volatility of futures prices. Estimating this model, we show it is quantitatively consistent with the V-shape relationship between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the forward curve. Copyright (c) 2009 The American Finance Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 64 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 3 (06)
    Pages: 1345-1375

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:64:y:2009:i:3:p:1345-1375

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    Cited by:
    1. Fink, Jason D. & Fink, Kristin E. & Russell, Allison, 2010. "When and how do tropical storms affect markets? The case of refined petroleum," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1283-1290, November.
    2. Shi, Jing & Xu, Tracy, 2013. "Price and volatility dynamics between securitized real estate spot and futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 582-592.
    3. Yang, Fan, 2013. "Investment shocks and the commodity basis spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 164-184.
    4. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Brooks, Chris & Lazar, Emese, 2012. "Futures basis, inventory and commodity price volatility: An empirical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2651-2663.
    5. Jaime Casassus & Diego Ceballos, 2010. "Correlation Structure between Inflation and Oil Futures Returns: An Equilibrium Approach," Documentos de Trabajo 373, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    6. Sofía B. Ramos & Helena Veiga, 2010. "Asymmetric effects of oil price fluctuations in international stock markets," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws100904, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
    7. Nicolas Merener, 2012. "Globally Distributed Production and Asset Pricing:the Rise of Latin America in CME Soybean Futures," Business School Working Papers 2012-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    8. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.

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