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Measuring oil-price shocks using market-based information

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  • Tao Wu

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Michele Cavallo

    (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

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    Abstract

    We develop two measures of exogenous oil-price shocks for the period 1984 to 2006 based on market commentaries on daily oil-price fluctuations. Our measures are based on exogenous events that trigger substantial fluctuations in spot oil prices and are constructed to be free of endogenous and anticipatory movements. We find that the dynamic responses of output and prices implied by these measures are “well-behaved,” and that the response of output is larger than the one implied by a conventional measure of oil-price shocks proposed in the literature. We then present a dynamic general-equilibrium model and ask whether it can account for the response of key macroeconomic variables to our oil-price shocks.

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    File URL: http://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2007/paper_953.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2007 Meeting Papers with number 953.

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    Date of creation: 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:red:sed007:953

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    1. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August.
    2. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
    3. James D. Hamilton, 1985. "Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 97-116.
    4. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-75, November.
    5. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    6. Tao Wu & Andrew McCallum, 2005. "Do oil futures prices help predict future oil prices?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue dec30.
    7. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
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