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The Dynamic Effects of Disinflation Policies

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Author Info
Collard , F.
Fève, P.
Matheron, J.

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Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of disinflation policies on key macroeconomic variables. Using postwar US data and episode techniques, we identify disinflation shocks as shocks that drive the inflation rate to a lower level in the long-run. We find that in the immediate aftermath of a disinflation policy, the economy enters in a persistent recession. The inflation rate increases above its long-run level and exhibits a positive hump-shaped response. A similar pattern is found for the nominal interest rate, which responds even more strongly in the short-run. We then show that the standard new Keynesian model fails to account for macroeconomic dynamics in disinflationary times. On the contrary a deep habit version of the model successfully accounts for the effects of disinflation policies.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Documents de Travail with number 190.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:190

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Related research
Keywords: Disinflation policies ; Deep Habits ; New Keynesian Models.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Morten O. Ravn & Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, 2004. "Deep Habits," 2004 Meeting Papers 208, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Michael Owyang & Garey Ramey, 2001. "Regime Switching and Monetary Policy Measurement," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 2001-03, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1994. "Federal Reserve Policy: Cause and Effect," NBER Working Papers 4342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Francis, Neville & Owyang, Michael T., 2005. "Monetary Policy in a Markov-Switching Vector Error-Correction Model: Implications for the Cost of Disinflation and the Price Puzzle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 305-313, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1994. "Monetary Policy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number greg94-1.
  6. Bullard, James & Keating, John W., 1995. "The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 477-496, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  8. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  9. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2003. "Stock Market and Investment Goods Prices: Implications for Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 10031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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