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Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility

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  • Kollmann, Robert
  • Zeugner, Stefan

Abstract

This paper explores the link between the leverage of the US financial sector, of households and of non-financial businesses, and real activity. We document that leverage is negatively correlated with the future growth of real activity, and positively linked to the conditional volatility of future real activity and of equity returns. The joint information in sectoral leverage series is more relevant for predicting future real activity than the information contained in any individual leverage series. Using in-sample regressions and out-of sample forecasts, we show that the predictive power of leverage is roughly comparable to that of macro and financial predictors commonly used by forecasters. Leverage information would not have allowed to predict the ‘Great Recession’ of 2008–2009 any better than conventional macro/financial predictors.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 36 (2012)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
Pages: 1267-1283

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:36:y:2012:i:8:p:1267-1283

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

Related research

Keywords: Leverage; Financial crisis; Forecasts; Real activity; Volatility;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Kollmann, Robert, 2012. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8985, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Robert Kollmann, 2012. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks and International Business Cycles: Evidence from Estimated Models," 2012 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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